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The Best of Both Worlds: A decision-making framework for combining traditional and contemporary forecast systems
Climate Change Resilience
Available Online

Chambers, Lynda D.

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Finn, Charlotte K.

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Plotz, Roan D.

2017
In most countries, national meteorological services either generate or have access to seasonal climate forecasts.However,inanumberofregions,theuptakeoftheseforecastsbylocalcommunitiescanbelimited, with the locals instead relying on traditional knowledgeto make their climate forecasts.Both approachesto seasonal climate forecasting have bene ts, and the incorporation of traditional forecast methods into contemporaryforecastsystemscanleadtoforecaststhatarelocallyrelevantandbettertrustedbytheusers.This in turn could signi cantly improve the communication and application of climate information, especially to remote communities. A number of different methodologies have been proposed for combining these forecasts. Through considering the bene ts and limitations of each approach, practical recommendations are providedonselectingamethod,intheformofadecisionframework,thattakesintoconsiderationbothuser and provider needs. The framework comprises four main decision points: 1) consideration of the level of involvement of traditional-knowledge experts or the community that is required, 2) existing levels of traditional knowledge of climate forecasting and its level of cultural sensitivity, 3) the availability of long-term data—both traditional-knowledge and contemporary-forecast components, and 4) the level of resourcing available.Noonemethodissuitableforeveryoneandeverysituation;however,thedecisionframeworkhelps to select the most appropriate method for a given situation.
An invasive ant distribution database to support biosecurity risk analysis in the Pacific
Biodiversity Conservation, BRB

Burne, Allan R.

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Cooling, Meghan

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Gruber, Monica A.

2017
Invasive species are one of the most serious threats to biodiversity. Up-to-date and accurate information on the distribution of invasive species is an important biosecurity risk analysis tool. Several databases are available to determine the distributions of invasive species and native species. However, keeping this information current is a real challenge. Ants are among the most widespread invasive species. Five species of ants are listed in the IUCN list of damaging invasive species, and many other species are also invasive in the Pacific. We sought to determine and update the distribution information for the 18 most problematic invasive ant species in the Pacific to assist in Small Island Developing States with risk analysis. We compared the information on six public databases, conducted a literature review, and contacted experts on invasive ants in the Pacific region to resolve conflicting information. While most public records were accurate we found some new records had not yet been incorporated into the public databases, and some information was inaccurate. The maintenance of public databases faces an enormous challenge in balancing completeness (~15 000 ant species in this case) with accuracy (the impossibility of constantly surveying) and utility.
Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands
Biodiversity Conservation
Available Online

Albert, Simon

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Church, John A.

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Gibbes, Badin R.

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Grinham, Alistair R.

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Leon, Javier X.

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Woodroffe, Colin D.

2016
Low-lying reef islands in the Solomon Islands provide a valuable window into the future impacts of global sea-level rise. Sea-level rise has been predicted to cause widespread erosion and inundation of low-lying atolls in the central Pacific. However, the limited research on reef islands in the western Pacific indicates the majority of shoreline changes and inundation to date result from extreme events, seawalls and inappropriate development rather than sea-level rise alone. Here, we present the first analysis of coastal dynamics from a sea-level rise hotspot in the Solomon Islands. Using time series aerial and satellite imagery from 1947 to 2014 of 33 islands, along with historical insight from local knowledge, we have identified five vegetated reef islands that have vanished over this time period and a further six islands experiencing severe shoreline recession. Shoreline recession at two sites has destroyed villages that have existed since at least 1935, leading to community relocations. Rates of shoreline recession are substantially higher in areas exposed to high wave energy, indicating a synergistic interaction between sea-level rise and waves. Understanding these local factors that increase the susceptibility of islands to coastal erosion is critical to guide adaptation responses for these remote Pacific communities.
Elasmobranch captures in the Fijian pelagic longline fishery
Biodiversity Conservation

Gilman, Eric

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Piovano, Susanna

2016
1. Pelagic longline fisheries for relatively fecund tuna and tuna-like species can have large adverse effects on incidentally caught species with low-fecundity, including elasmobranchs. 2. Analyses of observer programme data from the Fiji longline fishery from 2011 to 2014 were conducted to characterize the shark and ray catch composition and identify factors that significantly explained standardized catch rates. Catch data were fitted to generalized linear models to identify potentially significant explanatory variables. 3. With a nominal catch rate of 0.610 elasmobranchs per 1000 hooks, a total of 27 species of elasmobranchs were captured, 48% of which are categorized as Threatened under the IUCN Red List. Sharks and rays made up 2.4% and 1.4%, respectively, of total fish catch. Blue sharks and pelagic stingrays accounted for 51% and 99% of caught sharks and rays, respectively. 4. There was near elimination of ‘shark lines’, branchlines set at or near the sea surface via attachment directly to floats, after 2011. 5. Of caught elasmobranchs, 35% were finned, 11% had the entire carcass retained, and the remainder was released alive or discarded dead. Finning of elasmobranchs listed in CITES Appendix II was not observed in 2014. 6. There were significantly higher standardized shark and ray catch rates on narrower J-shaped hooks than on wider circle hooks. Based on findings from previous studies on single factor effects of hook width and shape, the smaller minimum width of the J-shaped hooks may have caused the higher shark and ray catch rates. For sharks, the effect of hook width may have exceeded the effect of hook shape, where small increases in shark catch rates have been observed on circle vs J-shaped hooks. 7. Shark and ray standardized catch rates were lowest in the latter half of the year. Focusing effort during the second half of the year could reduce elasmobranch catch rates.
Time-resolved record of 236U and 239,240Pu isotopes from a coral growing during the nuclear testing program at Enewetak Atoll (Marshall Islands)

Chan, W. Y.

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Fallon, S. J.

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Fifield, L. K.

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Froehlich, M. B.

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Tims, S. G.

2016
A comprehensive series of nuclear tests were carried out by the United States at Enewetak Atoll in the Marshall Islands, especially between 1952 and 1958. A Porites Lutea coral that was growing in the Enewetak lagoon within a few km of all of the high-yield tests contains a continuous record of isotopes, which are of interest (e.g. 14 C, 236 U, 239, 240 Pu) through the testing period. Prior to the present work, 14C measurements at ~2-month resolution had shown pronounced peaks in the D 14C data that coincided with the times at which tests were conducted. Here were port measurements of 236 U and 239, 240 Pu on the same coral using accelerator mass spectrometry, and again nd prominent peaks in the concentrations of these isotopes that closely follow those in 14C. Consistent with the 14C data, the magnitudes of these peaks do not, however, correlate well with the explosive yields of the corresponding tests, indicating that smaller tests probably contributed disproportionately to the debris that fell in the lagoon. Additional information about the different tests can also be obtained from the 236 U/ 239 Pu and 240 Pu/ 239 Pu ratios, which are found to vary dramatically over the testing period. In particular, the rst thermonuclear test, Ivy-Mike, has characteristic 236 U/239 Pu and 240 Pu/ 239 Pu signatures which are diagnostic of the rst arrival of nuclear test material in various archives.
Microplastic pollution identified in deep-sea water and ingested by benthic invertebrates in the Rockall Trough, North Atlantic Ocean
Biodiversity Conservation

Courtene-Jones, Winnie

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Gary, Stefan F.

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Mogg, Andrew O.M.

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Narayanaswamy, Bhavani E.

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Quinn, Brian

2017
Microplastics are widespread in the natural environment and present numerous ecological threats. While the ultimate fate of marine microplastics are not well known, it is hypothesized that the deep sea is the nal sink for this anthropogenic contaminant. This study provides a quanti cation and characterisation of microplastic pollution ingested by benthic macroinvertebrates with different feeding modes (Ophiomusium lymani, Hymenaster pellucidus and Colus jeffreysianus) and in adjacent deep water> 2200 m, in the Rockall Trough, Northeast Atlantic Ocean. Despite the remote location, microplastic bres were identi ed in deep-sea water at a concentration of 70.8 particles m 3, comparable to that in surface waters. Of the invertebrates examined (n ¼ 66), 48% ingested microplastics with quantities enumerated comparable to coastal species. The number of ingested microplastics differed signi cantly between species and generalized linear modelling identi ed that the number of microplastics ingested for a given tissue mass was related to species and not organism feeding mode or the length or overall weight of the individual. Deep-sea microplastics were visually highly degraded with surface areas more than double that of pristine particles. The identi cation of synthetic polymers with densities greater and less than sea water along with comparable quantities to the upper ocean indicates processes of vertical re-distribution. This study presents the rst snapshot of deep ocean microplastics and the quanti cationofmicroplasticpollutionintheRockallTrough.Additionalsamplingthroughoutthedeepseaisrequiredtoassesslevelsofmicroplasticpollution,verticaltransportationandsequestration,which have the potential to impact the largest global ecosystem.