Search the SPREP Catalogue

Monthly Pacific Climate and Ocean Bulletin, July 2025

The Pacific ACCESS-S weekly update from the COSPPac 3 Project for the third week of August 2025

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole remain neutral. The Bureau’s model predicts a neutral ENSO (neither El Niño nor La Niña) until at least January. This is consistent with forecasts from 6 out of 8 international models assessed, with 2 indicating borderline La Niña levels during the southern spring and early summer. There is a relatively large spread in the model forecasts, indicating more uncertainty than usual in the ENSO forecast.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 29 August: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above-normal are favoured in the following country Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZs): southern FSM, PNG, Solomon Is., Vanuatu, New Caledonia, most of Fiji, southern Tuvalu, W & F, central French Polynesia and northern Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in most of PNG, parts of New Caledonia and patches of French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 24 August: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above-normal are favoured in the following country Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZs): Palau, central and western FSM, PNG, Solomon Is., Vanuatu, New Caledonia, most of Fiji, southern Tuvalu, northern W & F, southeastern French Polynesia and northern Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in most of PNG, far western Solomon Islands, central Vanuatu, parts of New Caledonia and patches of French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 15 August: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above-normal are favoured in the following country Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZs): Palau, central and western FSM, southern Guam, PNG, Solomon Is., Vanuatu, New Caledonia, most of Fiji, southern Tuvalu, northern W & F, southeastern French Polynesia. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in most of PNG, far western Solomon Islands, central Vanuatu, parts of New Caledonia and patches of French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

In June, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was weak and displayed north of its normal location and observed mainly in the western Pacific along Philippines, Palau, western FSM, Guam, and RMI. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was active and located over its normal average location over PNG, Solomon Islands and southern Tuvalu

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 8 August: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above-normal are favoured in the following country Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZs): Palau, southwest FSM, northern RMI, PNG, Solomon Is., Vanuatu, New Caledonia, southern Fiji, and patches of eastern French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is.. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in most of PNG, southwest Solomon Islands, and northwest and southeast New Caledonia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 1 August: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above-normal are favoured in the following country Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZs): Palau, southern FSM, PNG, southwestern Solomon Is., Vanuatu, New Caledonia, large parts of Fiji, and patches of eastern French Polynesia. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in north-eastern PNG, most of New Caledonia, Vanuatu, southern Fiji, and south Tonga. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 25 July: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above-normal are favoured in the following country Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZs): Palau, Guam, western and southern FSM, PNG, western and southern Solomon Is., Vanuatu, New Caledonia, most of Fiji, south Tonga, small patches of south-eastern French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in north-eastern PNG, most of New Caledonia, Vanuatu, southern Fiji, and south Tonga. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.