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The Pacific Weekly ACCESS-S update 22 October 2025

The Pacific Weekly ACCESS-S Update from the Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 24 October: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): most of Palau and CNMI, southwestern FSM, PNG, western half of the Solomon Is, most of Vanuatu, New Caledonia, far southern Tonga, southeastern Cook Is., and the southern half of French Polynesia. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in large parts of PNG, the northwestern Solomon Islands, and northwest New Caledonia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 17 October: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): Palau, northern CNMI, southern FSM, PNG, Solomon Is, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, central French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in PNG, the western Solomon Islands, northwest New Caledonia, and eastern French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

In August, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and south of its normal posi-tion over the western Pacific over FSM and RMI. The South Pacific Convergence zone was ac-tive and shift south of its normal position over New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji and southern Ton-ga.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has now met the negative IOD threshold (less than or equal to −0.4 °C) for 7 consecutive weeks. . The Bureau’s model predicts some further cooling of the tropical Pacific is likely, potentially reaching La Niña levels briefly during spring (September to December), and returning to neutral in the austral summer (December to February). This is consistent with most international models assessed, with around half indicating ENSO will remain neutral, and the other half indicating La Niña may develop.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 10 October: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): Palau, PNG, Solomon Is, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, central Cook Is., parts of French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in PNG, the western Solomon Islands and eastern French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): FSM, far northern CNMI, south-eastern Palau, PNG, Solomon Is, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, central Cook Is., parts of French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in PNG, the western Solomon Islands and eastern French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 19 September: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): southern FSM, eastern Palau, PNG, Solomon Is, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, western Fiji, central Tonga, Niue, central Cook Is., central French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in most of PNG, the western and south of Solomon Islands, northern New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and eastern French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

The Pacific Weekly ACCESS-S Update issued by the Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific. 27 August 2025