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Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of six invasive alien plants in Nepal.
BRB
Available Online

Shrestha Uttam Babu

The biological invasions have been increasing at multiple spatial scales and the management of invasive alien species is becoming more challenging due to confounding effects of climate change on the distribution of those species. Identification of climatically suitable areas for invasive alien species and their range under future climate change scenarios areessentialfor long-term management planningofthesespecies. Using occurrence data of six of the most problematic invasive alien plants (IAPs) of Nepal (Ageratum houstonianum Mill., Chromolaenaodorata (L.) R.M. King & H. Rob., Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit., Lantana camara L., Mikania micrantha Kunth, and Parthenium hysterophorus L.), we have predicted their climatically suitable areas across the country under the current and two future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070). We have developed an ensemble of eight different species distribution modelling approaches to predict the location of climatically suitable areas. Under the current climatic condition, P. hysterophorus had the highest suitable area (18% of the total country’s area) while it was the lowest for M. micrantha (12%). A predicted increase in the currently suitable areas ranges from 3% (M. micrantha) to 70% (A. houstonianum) with the mean value for all six species being 29% under the future climate change scenario for 2050. For four species (A. houstonianum, C. odorata, H.suaveolens and L. camara), additional areas at elevations higher than the current distribution will provide suitable habitat under the projected future climate. In conclusion, all six IAPs assessed are likely to invade additional areas in future due to climate change and these scenarios need to be considered while planning for IAPs management as well as climate change adaptation.
Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation For Disaster Risk Reduction In Fiji
BRB
Available Online

Pike Brown ? Adam Daigneault ? David Gawith ? William Aalbersberg ? James Comley ? Patrick Fong ? Fraser Morgan

Natural disasters such as hurricanes, cyclones, and tropical depressions cause average annual direct losses of US$284 million in the Pacific. With a combined population of fewer than 10 million people, annual losses are the highest in the world on a per-capita basis. Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall are closely linked to climate change, suggesting that Pacific Island nations face increasing risk of disasters such as flooding and landslides. Proactive management through infrastructure development, social solutions, and/or ecosystem-based adaptation can mitigate these risks. However, there are a paucity of data pertaining to the costs, effectiveness, and feasibility of most management options. In the wake of two major flood events and a cyclone occurring between January and December 2012, we conducted a state-of-the-science assessment of disaster risk reduction for flooding in the Ba and Penang River catchments in Viti Levu, Fiji to identify the most cost-effective management options for communities and households (Figure E1). The analysis accounted for the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of flooding, the costs, benefits, and feasibility of management, and the potential impacts of climate change.
Background Paper Number 2: The Potential for Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) in the Pacific Islands.
BRB
Available Online
This report examines the role of the ecosystem services in reducing the vulnerability of the people of the Pacific Islands to climate change. Specifically, it describes the decision-making frameworks and the current state of knowledge of specific ecosystem-service/development relationships that are relevant to EbA. The primary objective of this work will inform broader recommendations on improving the integration of ecosystems, biodiversity and climate change adaptation under the Biodiversity, Ecosystems and Climate Change in the Pacific - Analysis and Needs Assessment Project(The Project) which is part of a collaboration between the Secretariat for the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and Conservation International and was undertaken from January to July 2011. This report should be considered as a companion volume to the other 3 background reports produced under the Project: Climate Change Adaptation Options for Species and Ecosystems in the Pacific: Background Paper #1; Need Analysis for Information on Ecosystem, Biodiversity and Climate Change Adaptation in the Pacific Islands Countries and Territories; Background Paper #3; Report on the Results Workshop from Nadi, 12-13 May 2011; Background Paper #4. The findings of each of these reports will be synthesized into a single, shorter volume that targets decision-makers in planning, agriculture, environment, fisheries and disaster management institutions in the Pacific. However, the audience for this EbA report (Background Paper #2) is technical staff in these institutions as it explores the next level of detail on EbA potential and practicalities of implementation.
Will Alien Plant Invaders Be advantaged Under Future Climates?
Climate Change Resilience, Biodiversity Conservation, BRB
Available Online

Gallagher, Rachel V.

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Leishman, Michelle R.

The last two decades have seen an upsurge in research into the potential synergies between invasive species and climate change, with evidence emerging of increased invader success under climate change. All stages along the naturalization-invasion continuum are likely to be affected, from the introduction and establishment of alien species to their spread and transition to serious invaders. A key question is whether alien plants will have a relative advantage under climate change conditions. So far, evidence for differential responses of alien invasive and native species to climate change drivers (elevated CO2) and outcomes (increasing temperature, changing rainfall patterns, changes in disturbance regimes) is mixed. Although alien invasive plants appear to be more responsive to elevated CO2 than many native species, plant response to elevated CO2 and other climate change components is dependent on environmental conditions and resource availability. Similarly, correlative modelling of species-climate relationships has not revealed clear evidence that invasive plants are likely to be able to increase the extent of suitable habitat under future climates any more than their native counterparts. We suggest that the most important driver of a shift to alien-dominated vegetation under climate change will be the superior capacity of alien invasive plants to take advantage of colonisation opportunities arising from climate change, such as extreme climatic events, changes in disturbance regimes, and widespread reduction in vegetation resilience as range margin populations decline. There are substantial challenges ahead for managing invasive plants under future climates. Weed risk assessment and management approaches must incorporate consideration of future climatic conditions. Most importantly, we will need a shift in management approaches away from a focus on the control of undesirable alien plant species to building resilience of resident vegetation assemblages, in association with targeted monitoring and early eradication of alien plant species.
Climate Risk Management in Water Sector in Tonga
Climate Change Resilience
Available Online

Fakhruddin, Bapon (Shm)

Natural disasters have a significant impact in the Pacific Islands. Between 1950 and 2004, more than 200 disasters resulted in more than 1700 fatalities and losses amounting to USD 6.5 billion. Given their small populations and economies, such losses are traumatic to Pacific Island countries. Tonga, one of 52 Small Island Developing States (SIDS), is highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change and disasters due principally to its geographical, geological, and socio–economic characteristics. Climate change and natural disasters pose severe adverse threats on the environment, the people of Tonga, and their livelihoods. Scientific findings revealed that these impacts would be exacerbated by future climate change. The Government of Tonga has acknowledged these risks to the sustainable development of the country and has hence considered these issues as high priorities in its National Strategic Planning Framework. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Australian Government Pacific Adaptation Climate Change (PACC) project have assisted to increase the resilience of the water resources management sector in Tonga and to enhance adaptive capacity of villages, communities and socio–economic activities to climate change and sea level rise (SLR). This paper, however, describes the impacts of water resources due to climate change rather than the PACC results.