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Human-caused climate change is perhaps the defining environmental issue of the early twenty-first century. We observe the earth’s climate in the present, but observations of future climate are not available yet. So in order to predict the future, we rely on simulation models to predict future climate. This book is designed to be a guide to climate simulation and prediction for the non-specialist and an entry point for understanding uncertainties in climate models. The goal is not to be simply a popular guide to climate modeling and prediction, but to help those using climate models to understand the results. This book provides background on the earth’s climate system and how it might change, a detailed qualitative analysis of how climate models are constructed, and a discussion of model results and the uncertainty inherent in those results. Throughout the text, terms in bold will be referenced in the glossary. References are provided as footnotes in each chapter. Who uses climate models? Climate model users are practitioners in many fields who desire to incorporate information about climate and climate change into planning and management decisions. Users may be scientists and engineers in fields such as ecosystems or water resources. These scientists are familiar with models and the roles of models in natural science. In other cases, the practitioners are engineers, urban planners, epidemiologists, or architects. Though not necessarily familiar with models of natural science, experts in these fields use quantitative information for decision-making. These experts are potential users of climate models. We hope in the end that by understanding climate models and their uncertainties, the reader will understand how climate models are constructed to represent the earth’s climate system. The book is intended to help the reader become a more competent interpreter or translator of climate model output.

In less than a century ago, Ethiopia was covered by more than half with dense rainforest. Today, only 5% remain resulting in famines causing thousands to perish every day. To achieve a sustainable use of national resources, the World Wildlife Fund mobilised the strongest worldwide support for conservation, working within 130 countries and supporting over 200 National Parks around the world. As an example of its success, WWF worked in collaboration with the Indian Government establishing a dozen reserves for "Project Tiger" which saved the 'Bengol Tiger' from extinction. Its population is now believed to have dropped from 4,000 to 1,800, occuring at an extremely high rate. Conservation Treaties and International Conventions greatly aid the WWF cause in preserving wildlife by forbidding trade of endangered plants and animals.

Several mechanisms have been used to acquire land for tropical-forest reservations. Legislative designation of National Parks on government-owned land, condemnation of private land, debt swaps, and outright purchase of private lands for reserves may, however, be inappropriate strategies in areas occupied by extant indigenous populations. In areas where indigenous peoples have a strong conservation ethic, the creation of reserves under partial or complete aboriginal control represents a viable alternative to the more traditional forms of land acquisition. Recently, three significant rain-forest reserves were created in Samoa using alternative strategies. 1) A US National Park in American Samoa involves the long-term lease of customary lands with local chiefs forming an advisory board on park policy; 2) in the Falealupo peninsula in Western Samoa, a covenant was established between the villagers who pledged to preserve and manage a large rain forest and private donors who provided funds for the construction of an elementary school; 3) in Tafua, Western Samoa, a covenant was established between the village, which vowed to preserve and manage the forest, and the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (SNF) which provided funds for an elementary school and public works. These reserves suggest that under indigenous control robust solutions to the problems of rain-forest preservation can be achieved.

Crisis has enveloped the more than 200,000 nationally and regionally protected natural and cultural heritage sites around the world. Heritage managers - those who manage natural sites such as national parks, wilderness areas, and biosphere reserves, as well as those who manage cultural sites including historic monuments, battlefields, heritage cities, and ancient rock art sites - face an urgent need to confront this crisis, and each day that they don't, more of our planet's common heritage disappears. Although heritage management and implementation suffer from a lack of money, time, personnel, information, and political will, The Future Has Other Plans argues that deeper causes to current problems lurk in the discipline itself. Drawing on decades of practical experience in global heritage management and case studies from around the world, Jon Kohl and Steve McCool provide an innovative solution for conserving these valuable protected areas. Merging interdisciplinary and evolving management paradigms, the authors introduce a new kind of holistic planning approach that integrates the practice of heritage management and conservation with operational realities.