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Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 24 October: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): most of Palau and CNMI, southwestern FSM, PNG, western half of the Solomon Is, most of Vanuatu, New Caledonia, far southern Tonga, southeastern Cook Is., and the southern half of French Polynesia. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in large parts of PNG, the northwestern Solomon Islands, and northwest New Caledonia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 17 October: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): Palau, northern CNMI, southern FSM, PNG, Solomon Is, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, central French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in PNG, the western Solomon Islands, northwest New Caledonia, and eastern French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

In August, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and south of its normal posi-tion over the western Pacific over FSM and RMI. The South Pacific Convergence zone was ac-tive and shift south of its normal position over New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji and southern Ton-ga.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has now met the negative IOD threshold (less than or equal to −0.4 °C) for 7 consecutive weeks. . The Bureau’s model predicts some further cooling of the tropical Pacific is likely, potentially reaching La Niña levels briefly during spring (September to December), and returning to neutral in the austral summer (December to February). This is consistent with most international models assessed, with around half indicating ENSO will remain neutral, and the other half indicating La Niña may develop.

The explainer provides a summary description of how climate model output is processed and used for informing the Van-KIRAP sectoral impact assessments. Best-prcticed projections science dictated the need to utilise multiple lines of evidence to inform hazard-based climate impact assessments.

This factsheet provides essential information on integrated climate risk concepts and terminology specifically related to hazard-based impact assessments for sectors in Vanuatu

This factsheet provides essential information on greenhouse gas emissions and how they are considered in climate hazard-based impact assessments

This factsheet describes climate models and how they are used in climate hazard-based impact assessments

This factsheet provides technical information on LiDAR data and capability in Vanuatu and how remote sensing technology can be applied to generate data and information for climate hazard-based impact and risk assessments

This factsheet provides technical information on Sofar Spotter buoys and how they are used in Vanuatu for ocean monitoring to generate realtime observational data and information on key physical climate and environmental conditions such as wave height.