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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean at ENSO-neutral levels. Atmospheric indices, such as those related to patterns of surface pressure, cloud and trade winds, are broadly consistent with an ENSO-neutral state.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean at ENSO-neutral levels. Atmospheric indices, such as those related to patterns of surface pressure, cloud and trade winds, are broadly consistent with an ENSO-neutral state. While some have displayed La Niña-like signals over recent months, a consistent and sustained shift in the atmosphere has not been observed.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean at ENSO-neutral levels. Atmospheric indices, such as those related to patterns of surface pressure, cloud and trade winds, are broadly consistent with an ENSO-neutral state. While some atmospheric indices have displayed La Niña-like signals over re-cent months, a consistent/sustained shift has not been observed.

In September, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and north of the Date Line, and a well-defined South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended east-southeast from PNG to the northern Cook Islands in the southern hemisphere

For September to November 2024 the models agree that above normal rainfall is likely or very likely for Palau, western to central FSM, central RMI, most of the PNG mainland, the north of both Samoa and American Samoa, and the north-central Cook Islands. In addition, the models agree that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for southeastern FSM, far southern RMI, Nauru, Kiribati, northern Tuvalu, northern Tokelau, northern French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is-lands.

In July, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was just north of the equator, and a well-defined South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended east-southeast from PNG to the northern Cook Islands in the southern hemisphere.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in teh central Pacific have been cooling since December 2023.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is currently neutral. However, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña Watch, due to some early signs that an event might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. A La Niña Watch does not guarantee that a La Niña will develop. There is about an equal chance of neutral ENSO conditions in the same outlook period.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is currently neutral. There are some early signs that a La Niña might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook has shifted to La Niña Watch. When La Niña tch criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has subse-quently developed around 50% of the time. There is about an equal chance of neutral ENSO conditions in the same outlook period. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023.

The El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Model forecasts and observations indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have peaked and are now declining.