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The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been shifted to El Niño ALERT, indicating a 70% chance of El Niño forming this year.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation status is currently neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño). Oce-anic and atmospheric indicators for the tropical Pacific Ocean are at neutral ENSO levels, but trending towards El Niño.

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook continues at La Niña indicating at least a 70% chance of La Niña reforming later this year. This is around triple the normal likelihood. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia and western Pacific during spring and summer.

The 2021-2022 La Niña event continues in the tropical Pacific, with little change in strength in the past few weeks. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently been weak and is expected to remain mostly weak for the coming fortnight.

Three month total rainfall is typically used for monitoring grasslands, shallow rooted plants and small water body (e.g. small water tanks, streams) moisture deficits. Allow for uncertainity associated with island size, topography, geology and soil type. Information provided gives an indication of predicted total rainfall over the next three months, not how intense the rain may be in anyone event, nor how it may vary from month to month.

Three-month total rainfall is typically used for monitoring grasslands, shallow rooted plants and small water body (e.g. small water tanks, streams) moisture deficits. Allow for uncertainty associated with island size, topography, geology and soil type.