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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña Watch, due to some early signs that an event might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023. This surface cooling is supported by a significant amount of sub-surface cooling underneath the central and eastern Pacific. Recent cloud and surface pressure patterns are also neutral.

The El Niño continues, but is near its end. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to return to ENSO-neutral later in autumn 2024. Oceanic indicators, such as tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, have been steadily cooling since December, but are still meeting El Niño thresholds.

The El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024. Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Niño. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. Short term pressure patterns are characteristic of an El Niño state, but when averaged over 60- and 90- days they are more typical of ENSO-neutral. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Niño strength.

The El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Model forecasts and observations indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have peaked and are now declining. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are expected to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024. Most atmospheric indicators are close to normal levels, although trade winds have temporarily weakened in line with the passage of the Madden-Julian Oscillation through the region.

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been shifted to El Niño ALERT, indicating a 70% chance of El Niño forming this year.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation status is currently neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño). Oce-anic and atmospheric indicators for the tropical Pacific Ocean are at neutral ENSO levels, but trending towards El Niño.

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook continues at La Niña indicating at least a 70% chance of La Niña reforming later this year. This is around triple the normal likelihood. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia and western Pacific during spring and summer.