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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña Watch, due to some early signs that an event might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023. This surface cooling is supported by a significant amount of sub-surface cooling underneath the central and eastern Pacific. Recent cloud and surface pressure patterns are also neutral.

The El Niño continues, but is near its end. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to return to ENSO-neutral later in autumn 2024. Oceanic indicators, such as tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, have been steadily cooling since December, but are still meeting El Niño thresholds.

The El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024. Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Niño. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. Short term pressure patterns are characteristic of an El Niño state, but when averaged over 60- and 90- days they are more typical of ENSO-neutral. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Niño strength.

The El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Model forecasts and observations indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have peaked and are now declining. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are expected to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024. Most atmospheric indicators are close to normal levels, although trade winds have temporarily weakened in line with the passage of the Madden-Julian Oscillation through the region.

The Coral bleaching Outlook to 24 September shows patches of area of 'Alert Level 1 and 2' over Kiribati (central Gilbert, northern Phoenix and northern Line Islands).

For April- June 2023, the models unanimously agree on above normal raindall for most of FSM, central Marshall islands, the southeast of PNG's EEX, southern Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. There are also unaimous in showing that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for southern parts of central and eastern Kiribati, Tokelau, northern Cook Islands and northern French Polynesia.

La Nina has weakened in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is likely near it end. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in February 2023 were cooler than average across much of the tropical Pacific Ocean, extending from around 165°E in a broadening wedge to the South America coastline.

La nina continues in the tropical Pacific, but oceanic indicators (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) have weakened since their peak during spring 2022.

La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific and models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral SSTs in January or February 2023.