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Subject Climatic changes - Regional
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Subject El nino - La nina - Oceania
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COSPPac Monthly Bulletin, August 2023

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

The Coral bleaching Outlook to 24 September shows patches of area of 'Alert Level 1 and 2' over Kiribati (central Gilbert, northern Phoenix and northern Line Islands).

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, May 2023.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been shifted to El Niño ALERT, indicating a 70% chance of El Niño forming this year.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, April 2023.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation status is currently neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño). Oce-anic and atmospheric indicators for the tropical Pacific Ocean are at neutral ENSO levels, but trending towards El Niño.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, March 2023.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

For April- June 2023, the models unanimously agree on above normal raindall for most of FSM, central Marshall islands, the southeast of PNG's EEX, southern Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. There are also unaimous in showing that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for southern parts of central and eastern Kiribati, Tokelau, northern Cook Islands and northern French Polynesia.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, February 2023.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

La Nina has weakened in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is likely near it end. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in February 2023 were cooler than average across much of the tropical Pacific Ocean, extending from around 165°E in a broadening wedge to the South America coastline.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, January 2023.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

La nina continues in the tropical Pacific, but oceanic indicators (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) have weakened since their peak during spring 2022.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, December 2022.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific and models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral SSTs in January or February 2023.

Regional Early Action Rainfall Watch : Monthly and seasonal Rainfall Watch: December 2022

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

Key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO reflect a mature La Niña. Models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral in January or February 2023.

Regional Early Action Rainfall Watch : Monthly and seasonal Rainfall Watch: November 2022

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

Key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO show an established La Niña. Models indicate this La Niña event is likely to decline early in the southern summer, with a return to ENSO-neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) early in 2023

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, August 2022.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook continues at La Niña indicating at least a 70% chance of La Niña reforming later this year. This is around triple the normal likelihood. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia and western Pacific during spring and summer.

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