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Subject El nino - La nina - Regional
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Subject Climatic changes - La nina - Oceania
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COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, March 2023.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

For April- June 2023, the models unanimously agree on above normal raindall for most of FSM, central Marshall islands, the southeast of PNG's EEX, southern Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. There are also unaimous in showing that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for southern parts of central and eastern Kiribati, Tokelau, northern Cook Islands and northern French Polynesia.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, February 2023.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

La Nina has weakened in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is likely near it end. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in February 2023 were cooler than average across much of the tropical Pacific Ocean, extending from around 165°E in a broadening wedge to the South America coastline.

Regional Early Action Rainfall Watch : Monthly and seasonal Rainfall Watch: March 2023

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

For Pacific Island countries in the western and central Pacific, region, there is a small region where below normal rainfall is likely or very likely stretching east and southeast from northeast PNG islands in the west, to a larger region in central Kiribati in east, and further to Cook Islands and French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island in the southeast

Regional Early Action Rainfall Watch : Monthly and seasonal Rainfall Watch: February 2023

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

For Pacific Island countries in the western and central Pacific region, there is a large region where very dry is likely for the coming season, this stretches east from northwest PNG in the west, to French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island in the east.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, January 2023.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

La nina continues in the tropical Pacific, but oceanic indicators (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) have weakened since their peak during spring 2022.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, December 2022.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific and models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral SSTs in January or February 2023.

Regional Early Action Rainfall Watch : Monthly and seasonal Rainfall Watch: December 2022

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

Key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO reflect a mature La Niña. Models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral in January or February 2023.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, November 2022.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific with models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral in Janu-ary or February 2023.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, October 2022.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

La Nina continues with models indicating a return to ENSO-neutral conditions. (neither La nina nor El Nino) early in 2023

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, June 2022.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

The 2021-22 La nina event has ended. However, observations and cimate model outlooks suggest La nina may reform later in 2022. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate ENSO is likely to remain neutral through the southern hemisphere winter.

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