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Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 17 October: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): Palau, northern CNMI, southern FSM, PNG, Solomon Is, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, central French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in PNG, the western Solomon Islands, northwest New Caledonia, and eastern French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

In August, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and south of its normal posi-tion over the western Pacific over FSM and RMI. The South Pacific Convergence zone was ac-tive and shift south of its normal position over New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji and southern Ton-ga.

The 2021-22 La nina event has ended. However, observations and cimate model outlooks suggest La nina may reform later in 2022. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate ENSO is likely to remain neutral through the southern hemisphere winter.

The 2021-2022 La Niña event has weakened slightly in the tropical Pacific over the past fort-night. Climate outlooks indicate a return to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels-neither La Niña nor El Niño-late in the southern hemisphere autumn (April to May 2022).