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In June, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was weak and displayed north of its normal location and observed mainly in the western Pacific along Philippines, Palau, western FSM, Guam, and RMI. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was active and located over its normal average location over PNG, Solomon Islands and southern Tuvalu

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 17 January: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8 °Cabove normal are present in the following country EEZs: Palau, Guam, CNMI, most of FSM, central and northern RMI, PNG, most of Solomon Is., northern New Caledonia, eastern Vanuatu, southern Fiji, southern Tonga, southern Niue, southern Cook Is., and southern French Polynesia. SST anomalies above 1.2 °C are favoured in Palau, central CNMI, southwestern FSM, and northern PNG. SSTs more than 0.8 °Cbelow normal are present across the northern Phoenix and Line Islands (Kiribati). Elsewhere SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Centre (PI-RCC) considers that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific remains neutral. While many of the indicators have recently met the threshold for La Niña they have not been sustained for levels or duration sufficient to warrant La Niña status.

The sea surface temperature a anomaly pattern in July shows SSTs were close to average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Coral bleaching status is no stress or no watch for almost all countries with patches of warning for western FSM.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Climate model outlooks indicate this neutral phase will last at least until September.•A moderate to strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse weakened prior moving into western Pacific

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Climate model outlooks indicate this neutral phase will last at least until September. With little sign of El Niño or La Niña developing, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status is INACTIVE.

Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures have persisted at ENSO neutral values for several weeks. Below the surface, much of the tropical Pacific is now at near average temperatures. Atmospheric indicators are also generally at neutral ENSO levels. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is close to zero, while trade winds are currently being enhanced by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Only cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show a weak La Niña like signature.