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In June, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was weak and displayed north of its normal location and observed mainly in the western Pacific along Philippines, Palau, western FSM, Guam, and RMI. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was active and located over its normal average location over PNG, Solomon Islands and southern Tuvalu

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 17 January: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8 °Cabove normal are present in the following country EEZs: Palau, Guam, CNMI, most of FSM, central and northern RMI, PNG, most of Solomon Is., northern New Caledonia, eastern Vanuatu, southern Fiji, southern Tonga, southern Niue, southern Cook Is., and southern French Polynesia. SST anomalies above 1.2 °C are favoured in Palau, central CNMI, southwestern FSM, and northern PNG. SSTs more than 0.8 °Cbelow normal are present across the northern Phoenix and Line Islands (Kiribati). Elsewhere SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Centre (PI-RCC) considers that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific remains neutral. While many of the indicators have recently met the threshold for La Niña they have not been sustained for levels or duration sufficient to warrant La Niña status.

The 2021-22 La nina event has ended. However, observations and cimate model outlooks suggest La nina may reform later in 2022. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate ENSO is likely to remain neutral through the southern hemisphere winter.

The 2021-2022 La Niña event has weakened slightly in the tropical Pacific over the past fort-night. Climate outlooks indicate a return to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels-neither La Niña nor El Niño-late in the southern hemisphere autumn (April to May 2022).