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Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 17 October: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): Palau, northern CNMI, southern FSM, PNG, Solomon Is, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, central French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in PNG, the western Solomon Islands, northwest New Caledonia, and eastern French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

In August, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and south of its normal posi-tion over the western Pacific over FSM and RMI. The South Pacific Convergence zone was ac-tive and shift south of its normal position over New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji and southern Ton-ga.

The Pacific Ocean is currently ENSO - neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño), with anomalous warmth in both the east and west of the basin. While oceanic ENSO indicators have continued to warm and are forecast to reach El Niño thresholds during winter, there has been little to no shift towards El Niño in atmospheric ENSO indicators

La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific with models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral in Janu-ary or February 2023.

La Nina continues with models indicating a return to ENSO-neutral conditions. (neither La nina nor El Nino) early in 2023

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook continues at La Niña indicating at least a 70% chance of La Niña reforming later this year. This is around triple the normal likelihood. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia and western Pacific during spring and summer.

A mature La Niña event remains active in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest the 2021-22 La Niña is near or at its peak, with a return to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) likely early in the southern hemisphere autumn (March 2022).