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Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of six invasive alien plants in Nepal.
BRB
Available Online

Shrestha Uttam Babu

The biological invasions have been increasing at multiple spatial scales and the management of invasive alien species is becoming more challenging due to confounding effects of climate change on the distribution of those species. Identification of climatically suitable areas for invasive alien species and their range under future climate change scenarios areessentialfor long-term management planningofthesespecies. Using occurrence data of six of the most problematic invasive alien plants (IAPs) of Nepal (Ageratum houstonianum Mill., Chromolaenaodorata (L.) R.M. King & H. Rob., Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit., Lantana camara L., Mikania micrantha Kunth, and Parthenium hysterophorus L.), we have predicted their climatically suitable areas across the country under the current and two future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070). We have developed an ensemble of eight different species distribution modelling approaches to predict the location of climatically suitable areas. Under the current climatic condition, P. hysterophorus had the highest suitable area (18% of the total country’s area) while it was the lowest for M. micrantha (12%). A predicted increase in the currently suitable areas ranges from 3% (M. micrantha) to 70% (A. houstonianum) with the mean value for all six species being 29% under the future climate change scenario for 2050. For four species (A. houstonianum, C. odorata, H.suaveolens and L. camara), additional areas at elevations higher than the current distribution will provide suitable habitat under the projected future climate. In conclusion, all six IAPs assessed are likely to invade additional areas in future due to climate change and these scenarios need to be considered while planning for IAPs management as well as climate change adaptation.
Global rise in emerging alien species results form increased accessibility of new source pools
Biodiversity Conservation, BRB
Available Online

Alain, Roques

,

Alexander, Mosena

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Andrew M, Liebhold

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Barbara, Tokarska-Guzik

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Benoit, Guenard

,

Bernd, Blasius

,

Bernd, Lenzner

,

Cesar, Capinha

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Charlotte, E Causton

,

Darren, F Ward

,

David, Pearman

,

Dietmar, Moser

,

Eckehard, G Brockerhoff

,

Ellie, E Dyer

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Evan, PEconomo

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Franz, Essl

,

Giuseppe, Brundu

,

Hanno, Seebens

,

Heinke, Jager

,

Helen E, Roy

,

Ingolf, Kuhn

,

Jan, Pergl

,

John, Kartesz

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Jonathan, M Jeschke

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Julissa, Rojas-Sandoval

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Katerina, Stjerova

,

Kevin Walker

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Laura, Celesti-Grapow

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Marc, Kenis

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Margarita, Arianoutsou

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Mark, van Kleunen

,

Marten, Winter

,

Michael, Ansong

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Misako, Nishino

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Nicol, Fuentes

,

Petr, Pysek

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Philip, E Hulme

,

Piero, Genovesi

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Riccardo, Scalera

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Shyama, Pagad

,

Silvia, Rossinelli

,

Stefan, Dullinger

,

Stefan, Schindler

,

Stephanie, Rorke

,

Sven, Bacher

,

Takehiko, Yamanaka

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Tim M, Blackburn

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Wayne, Dawson

,

Wolfgang, Nentwig

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Wolfgang, Rabitsch

Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species—those never encountered as aliens before—therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000–2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1–16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict.
Estimating burdens of neglected tropical zoonotic diseases on islands with introduced mammals
BRB
Available Online

Croll, Donald A.

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Holmes, Nick D.

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Kilpatrick, A. Marm.

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Newton, Kelly M.

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Spatz, Dena R.

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Tershy, Bernie.

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de Wit, Luz A.

2017
Many neglected tropical zoonotic pathogens are maintained by introduced mammals, and on islands the most common introduced species are rodents, cats, and dogs. Management of introduced mammals, including control or eradication of feral populations, which is frequently done for ecological restoration, could also reduce or eliminate the pathogens these animals carry. Understanding the burden of these zoonotic diseases is crucial for quantifying the potential public health benefits of introduced mammal management. However, epidemiological data are only available from a small subset of islands where these introduced mammals co-occur with people. We examined socioeconomic and climatic variables as predictors for disease burdens of angiostrongyliasis, leptospirosis, toxoplasmosis, toxocariasis, and rabies from 57 islands or island countries. We found strong correlates of disease burden for leptospirosis, Toxoplasma gondii infection, angiostrongyliasis, and toxocariasis with more than 50% of the variance explained, and an average of 57% (range = 32–95%) predictive accuracy on out-of-sample data. We used these relationships to provide estimates of leptospirosis incidence and T. gondii seroprevalence infection on islands where nonnative rodents and cats are present. These predicted estimates of disease burden could be used in an initial assessment of whether the costs of managing introduced mammal reservoirs might be less than the costs of perpetual treatment of these diseases on islands.
Massive yet grossly underestimated global costs of invasive insects
BRB
Available Online

Albert, Celine.

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Barbet-Massin, Morgane.

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Bellard, Celine.

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Bradshaw, Corey J.A.

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Courchamp, Franck.

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Fournier, Alice.

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Leroy, Boris.

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Roiz, David.

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Salles, Jean-Michel.

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Simard, Frederic.

2016
Insects have presented human society with some of its greatest development challenges by spreading diseases, consuming crops and damaging infrastructure. Despite the massive human and financial toll of invasive insects, cost estimates of their impacts remain sporadic, spatially incomplete and of questionable quality. Here we compile a comprehensive database of economic costs of invasive insects. Taking all reported goods and service estimates, invasive insects cost a minimum of US$70.0 billion per year globally, while associated health costs exceed US$6.9 billion per year. Total costs rise as the number of estimate increases, although many of the worst costs have already been estimated (especially those related to human health). A lack of dedicated studies, especially for reproducible goods and service estimates, implies gross underestimation of global costs. Global warming as a consequence of climate change, rising human population densities and intensifying international trade will allow these costly insects to spread into new areas, but substantial savings could be achieved by increasing surveillance, containment and public awareness.
Improving the breeding success of a colonial seabird: a cost-benefit comparison of the eradication and control of its rat predator
BRB
Available Online

Bretagnolle, Vincent.

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Culioli, Jean-Michel.

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Lorvelec, Olivier.

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Pascal, Michel Pascal.

2008
Breeding success of 5 Cory’s shearwater Calonectris diomedea sub-colonies of Lavezzu Island (Lavezzi Archipelago, Corsica) was checked annually for 25 consecutive years from 1979 to 2004. Between 1989 and 1994, 4 ship rat Rattus rattus controls were performed in several subcolonies. In November 2000, rats were eradicated from Lavezzu Island and its 16 peripheral islets (85 ha) using traps then toxic baits. We compare cost (number of person-hours required in the field) and benefit (Cory’s shearwater breeding success) of control and eradication. The average breeding success doubled when rats were controlled or eradicated (0.82) compared to the situation without rat management (0.45). Moreover, the average breeding success after eradication (0.86) was significantly (11%) higher than after rat controls (0.75). Furthermore, the great variation in breeding success recorded among sub-colonies both with and without rat control declined dramatically after eradication, suggesting that rats had a major impact on breeding success. The estimated effort needed to perform eradication and checking of the permanent bait-station system during the year following eradication was 1360 person-hours. In contrast, rat control was estimated to require 240 or 1440 person-hours per year when implemented by trained and untrained staff, respectively. Within 6 yr, eradication cost is lower than control cost performed by untrained staff and confers several ecological advantages on more ecosystem components than Cory’s shearwater alone. Improved eradication tools such as hand or aerial broadcasting of toxic baits instead of the fairly labour-intensive eradication strategy we used would dramatically increase the economic advantage of eradication vs. control. Therefore, when feasible, we recommend eradication rather than control of non-native rat populations. Nevertheless, control remains a useful management tool when eradication is not practicable.
Introduced rats indirectly change marine rocky intertidal communities from algae- to invertebrate-dominated
Biodiversity Conservation, BRB
Available Online

Croll, Donald A.

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Kurle, Carolyn M.

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Tershy, Bernie R.

2008
It is widely recognized that trophic interactions structure ecological communities, but their effects are usually only demonstrated on a small scale. As a result, landscape-level documentations of trophic cascades that alter entire communities are scarce. Islands invaded by animals provide natural experiment opportunities both to measure general trophic effects across large spatial scales and to etermine the trophic roles of invasive species within native ecosystems. Studies addressing the trophic interactions of invasive species most often focus on their direct effects. To investigate both the presence of a landscape-level trophic cascade and the direct and indirect effects of an invasive species, we examined the impacts of Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) introduced to the Aleutian Islands on marine bird densities and marine rocky intertidal community structures through surveys conducted on invaded and rat-free islands throughout the entire 1,900-km archipelago. Densities of birds that forage in the intertidal were higher on islands without rats. Marine intertidal invertebrates were more abundant on islands with rats, whereas fleshy algal cover was reduced. Our results demonstrate that invasive rats directly reduce bird densities through predation and significantly affect invertebrate and marine algal abundance in the rocky intertidal indirectly via a cross-community trophic cascade, unexpectedly changing the intertidal community structure from an algae- to an invertebrate-dominated system.