Pacific Islands Early Action Rainfall Watch : January 2026
SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information
Available Online
La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain neutral until at least the end of autumn 2026. The IOD is typically inactive from December to April. The Bureau's model indicates that SSTs in the tropical Pacific are likely to return to a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state in late summer, consistent with most international models. Neutral conditions are favoured through to at least late autumn