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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole remain neutral. Bureau's model predicts a neutral ENSO (neither El Niño nor La Niña) until at least November. This is consistent with forecasts from 7 out of 8 international models. However, there is a larger spread in the model forecasts towards the end of the outlook period, indicating greater uncertainty towards the end of spring.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 04 July: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above-normal are favoured in the following country Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZs): northern CNMI, Guam, eastern Palau, northern RMI, western and southern FSM, PNG, western and central Solomon Is., Vanuatu, New Caledonia, western and southern Fiji, southern and western Tonga, patches of southern French Polynesia, and central and southern Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in eastern PNG mainland, most of New Caledonia, southern Fiji and southern Tonga. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

Film about Tokelau's message for the Barbados Conference. A SPREP funded project produced and directed by Rudy Bartley and production by the Electronic Media Unit, USP Alafua Campus. It serves as Tokelau's formal communication or address to the Barbados Conference which is presumably focused on environmental or climate-related issues.

The Report highlights recent successes in the area of climate services including the roles National Climate Outlook forums have had in building stronger relationships between the users of climate services and our National Meteorological Services, while Regional Climate Outlook forums have contributed much to building stronger collaborations among services users and climatologists across the Pacific.