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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has now met the negative IOD threshold (less than or equal to −0.4 °C) for 7 consecutive weeks. . The Bureau’s model predicts some further cooling of the tropical Pacific is likely, potentially reaching La Niña levels briefly during spring (September to December), and returning to neutral in the austral summer (December to February). This is consistent with most international models assessed, with around half indicating ENSO will remain neutral, and the other half indicating La Niña may develop.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole are neutral. Bureau's model predicts neutral ENSO (neither El Niño nor La Niña) until at least September. This is consistent with forecasts from a range of international models. However, skill for ENSO forecasts at this time of the year has historically been low beyond winter.

The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Centre (PI-RCC) considers that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific remains neutral. While many of the indicators have recently met the threshold for La Niña they have not been sustained for levels or duration sufficient to warrant La Niña status.

The 3-month rainfall status for April to June 2024 was Very Wet or Seriously Wet over southern Palau, southwest FSM, most of PNG, most of Solomon Islands, far northern Fiji, western and southern Tuvalu, Tokelau, northeast Wallis and Futuna, patches in both Samoa and American Samoa, northern Cook Islands, far northern and southern Line Islands, and northern French Polynesia.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña Watch, due to some early signs that an event might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024.

The El Niño event continues in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for December 2023 were higher than average across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The extent and magnitude of warm anomalies across the equatorial Pacific has decreased compared with November.

Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) for November 2023 showed a mature El Niño pattern. Across much of the tropical Pacific between 10°S and 10°N, SSTs were more than 0.8°C above the long-term average, increasing to nearly 3°C above average east of the Date Line.

The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development considered likely in the coming weeks, despite the current lack of atmospheric response. When El Niño Alert criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time.

The 3-month rainfall status for April to June 2023 was Very Dry or Seriously Dry stretching eastwards from eastern Solomon Islands, through Tuvalu, northern Fiji, Kiribati (southern halves of central and eastern), northern Wallis and Futuna, Tokelau, patches in Samoa and American Samoa, northern Cook Islands, and northern French Polynesia. In addition, a area of Very Dry and Seriously Dry lay over the Coral Sea, western New Caledonia and southeast towards Norfork Island.

The Pacific Ocean is currently ENSO - neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño), with anomalous warmth in both the east and west of the basin. While oceanic ENSO indicators have continued to warm and are forecast to reach El Niño thresholds during winter, there has been little to no shift towards El Niño in atmospheric ENSO indicators