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Collection Climate Science and Information
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Subject Climate Information - Oceania
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Subject Sea level rise - La Nina - El Nino - Oceania
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COSPPac Pacific Weekly Access-S Update - Wednesday 08 October 2025

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 24 October: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): most of Palau and CNMI, southwestern FSM, PNG, western half of the Solomon Is, most of Vanuatu, New Caledonia, far southern Tonga, southeastern Cook Is., and the southern half of French Polynesia. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in large parts of PNG, the northwestern Solomon Islands, and northwest New Caledonia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

COSPPac Pacific Weekly Access-S Update - Wednesday 01 October 2025

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 17 October: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): Palau, northern CNMI, southern FSM, PNG, Solomon Is, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, central French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in PNG, the western Solomon Islands, northwest New Caledonia, and eastern French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

COSPPac Monthly Pacific Climate and Ocean Bulletin, August 2025

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

In August, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and south of its normal posi-tion over the western Pacific over FSM and RMI. The South Pacific Convergence zone was ac-tive and shift south of its normal position over New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji and southern Ton-ga.

Pacific Islands Early Action Rainfall Watch : September 2025

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has now met the negative IOD threshold (less than or equal to −0.4 °C) for 7 consecutive weeks. . The Bureau’s model predicts some further cooling of the tropical Pacific is likely, potentially reaching La Niña levels briefly during spring (September to December), and returning to neutral in the austral summer (December to February). This is consistent with most international models assessed, with around half indicating ENSO will remain neutral, and the other half indicating La Niña may develop.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, July 2021.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

The sea surface temperature a anomaly pattern in July shows SSTs were close to average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Coral bleaching status is no stress or no watch for almost all countries with patches of warning for western FSM.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, May 2021.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Climate model outlooks indicate this neutral phase will last at least until September.•A moderate to strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse weakened prior moving into western Pacific

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, April 2021.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Climate model outlooks indicate this neutral phase will last at least until September. With little sign of El Niño or La Niña developing, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status is INACTIVE.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, March 2021.

SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information

Available Online

Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures have persisted at ENSO neutral values for several weeks. Below the surface, much of the tropical Pacific is now at near average temperatures. Atmospheric indicators are also generally at neutral ENSO levels. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is close to zero, while trade winds are currently being enhanced by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Only cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show a weak La Niña like signature.

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