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  • Collection Climate Science and Information
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  • Subject Climatic changes - Regional
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  • Subject Climate Information - Oceania
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COSPPac Pacific Weekly Access-S Update - Wednesday 08 October 2025
SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information
Available Online
2025
Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 24 October: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): most of Palau and CNMI, southwestern FSM, PNG, western half of the Solomon Is, most of Vanuatu, New Caledonia, far southern Tonga, southeastern Cook Is., and the southern half of French Polynesia. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in large parts of PNG, the northwestern Solomon Islands, and northwest New Caledonia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.
COSPPac Pacific Weekly Access-S Update - Wednesday 01 October 2025
SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information
Available Online
2025
Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 17 October: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°C above normal are favoured in the following countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): Palau, northern CNMI, southern FSM, PNG, Solomon Is, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, central French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in PNG, the western Solomon Islands, northwest New Caledonia, and eastern French Polynesia. Elsewhere, SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.
COSPPac Monthly Pacific Climate and Ocean Bulletin, August 2025
SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information
Available Online
2025
In August, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and south of its normal posi-tion over the western Pacific over FSM and RMI. The South Pacific Convergence zone was ac-tive and shift south of its normal position over New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji and southern Ton-ga.
Pacific Islands Early Action Rainfall Watch : September 2025
SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information
Available Online
2025
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has now met the negative IOD threshold (less than or equal to −0.4 °C) for 7 consecutive weeks. . The Bureau’s model predicts some further cooling of the tropical Pacific is likely, potentially reaching La Niña levels briefly during spring (September to December), and returning to neutral in the austral summer (December to February). This is consistent with most international models assessed, with around half indicating ENSO will remain neutral, and the other half indicating La Niña may develop.
COSPPac Monthly Bulletin, August 2023
SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information
Available Online
2023
The Coral bleaching Outlook to 24 September shows patches of area of 'Alert Level 1 and 2' over Kiribati (central Gilbert, northern Phoenix and northern Line Islands).
COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, March 2023.
SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information
Available Online
2023
For April- June 2023, the models unanimously agree on above normal raindall for most of FSM, central Marshall islands, the southeast of PNG's EEX, southern Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. There are also unaimous in showing that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for southern parts of central and eastern Kiribati, Tokelau, northern Cook Islands and northern French Polynesia.
COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, February 2023.
SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information
Available Online
2023
La Nina has weakened in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is likely near it end. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in February 2023 were cooler than average across much of the tropical Pacific Ocean, extending from around 165°E in a broadening wedge to the South America coastline.
COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, January 2023.
SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information
Available Online
2023
La nina continues in the tropical Pacific, but oceanic indicators (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) have weakened since their peak during spring 2022.
COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, December 2022.
SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information
Available Online
2022
La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific and models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral SSTs in January or February 2023.
Regional Early Action Rainfall Watch : Monthly and seasonal Rainfall Watch: December 2022
SPREP Publications, Climate Science and Information
Available Online
2022
Key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO reflect a mature La Niña. Models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral in January or February 2023.

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