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Demystifying Climate Models
Available Online

Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood

2016
Human-caused climate change is perhaps the defining environmental issue of the early twenty-first century. We observe the earth’s climate in the present, but observations of future climate are not available yet. So in order to predict the future, we rely on simulation models to predict future climate. This book is designed to be a guide to climate simulation and prediction for the non-specialist and an entry point for understanding uncertainties in climate models. The goal is not to be simply a popular guide to climate modeling and prediction, but to help those using climate models to understand the results. This book provides background on the earth’s climate system and how it might change, a detailed qualitative analysis of how climate models are constructed, and a discussion of model results and the uncertainty inherent in those results. Throughout the text, terms in bold will be referenced in the glossary. References are provided as footnotes in each chapter. Who uses climate models? Climate model users are practitioners in many fields who desire to incorporate information about climate and climate change into planning and management decisions. Users may be scientists and engineers in fields such as ecosystems or water resources. These scientists are familiar with models and the roles of models in natural science. In other cases, the practitioners are engineers, urban planners, epidemiologists, or architects. Though not necessarily familiar with models of natural science, experts in these fields use quantitative information for decision-making. These experts are potential users of climate models. We hope in the end that by understanding climate models and their uncertainties, the reader will understand how climate models are constructed to represent the earth’s climate system. The book is intended to help the reader become a more competent interpreter or translator of climate model output.
The Distribution and Abundance of Myna Birds (Acridotheres tristis) and Rimatara Lorikeets (Vini kuhlii) on Atiu, Cook Islands.
Biodiversity Conservation, BRB
Available Online

Heptonstall. R.E.A

2010
The Common Myna Acridotheres tristis was originally introduced to the island of Atiu, Cook Islands, in 1915 to control the Coconut stick insect Graeffea crouanii but it has since become a pest itself. The Rimatara lorikeet Vini Kuhlii or ‘Kura’ was reintroduced, after disappearing from the Southern Cook Islands almost 200 years ago, to Atiu on 24th April 2007 from Rimatara, French Polynesia to create a reserve population due to there being only approximately 1000 birds left on Rimatara. Due to observations of mynas reportedly harassing and attacking adult and juvenile Kura at the nest, an eradication programme was introduced by Gerald McCormack, Director of the Cook Island Natural Heritage Trust (CINHT), in May 2009 to reduce the population size of myna birds to give the Kura a couple of peaceful nesting seasons to help establish a stable population on Atiu. A study by J. Mitchell of the University of Leeds in May/June 2009 estimated a starting count of approximately 6000 myna birds prior to the eradication programme. That survey was followed up in May 2010 using two strategies, the transect method and roost counts. Analysis of transect method counts, using the Distance software, estimate there are approximately 3128 mynas on Atiu. Roost counts were at variance with that figure and estimated only 1280 myna birds. The roost counts estimate of 1280 may be the most accurate because all mynas would be in the winter roosts for heat conservation from May to July alleviating the concern that females and young would be nesting away from the roosts during counts, whereas transect counts may involve recounting the same birds numerous times; a problem minimized by repeating transect counts twice daily and using different transects to cover as much of the expected habitat as possible. Only a limited survey of the population of Kura was possible during this visit to Atiu since almost all available time and logistics were focused on myna surveys. An estimate of the Kura population suggests there are approximately 100 birds, which suggests that since the 2007 introduction the Kura population is thriving on Atiu. However, comparisons with the exponential growth rate model of 184 birds suggest this difference could be due to myna bird harassment despite culling. A more comprehensive survey is recommended perhaps using similar strategies to determine whether the myna has any deleterious effect on the Kura. In July 2010 a new myna bounty was introduced and is proving successful as a further 383 myna birds were culled by the end of July. The Atiu Island Council may decide on complete eradication of the myna to give the Kura full advantage of living on Atiu in the absence of the competitive myna bird.
The distribution and abundance of an invasive species: the common myna (Acridotheres tristis) on Atiu, Cook Islands
Biodiversity Conservation, BRB
Available Online

Mitchell. J.

2009
An invasive alien species are known to cause significant economic and environmental damage. Islands are much more vulnerable to the invasion of invasive alien species, and have higher rates of extinction. In the islands of the South Pacific, there are several species Polynesian land birds which are threatened with extinction due to invasive alien species and human interference. Without any intervention from humans, it is likely that these birds will suffer extinction in the next few decades. The island of Atiu in the Cook Islands (South Pacific) supports a range of avian fauna. In 2007 the Rimitara lorikeet (Vini kuhlii), also known locally as the ‘Kura’ was introduced to Atiu, to make a reserve population, as there were only approximatley 1000 left on the island of Rimitara, French Polynesia. There is concern for this species on Atiu due to the existence of the common myna (Acridotheres tristis). The myna is an aggressive invasive which is one of the world’s worst 100 invasive species. It was introduced to the Cook Islands by the government, with the intention to control the coconut-stick insect (Graeffea crouani), but is now a pest itself. A myna control programme on Atiu is being coordinated and controlled by Gerald McCormack (Cook Islands Natural Heritage Trust), working through George Mateariki, and using funding from various conservation organisations. Poisioning is being carried out by George in order to reduce myna numbers, and a bounty has been set on the birds or for every right foot so that the locals can help as much as possible. This investigation aimed to estimate the total population size on the island to use as a starting count to determine whether the programme is successful or not. Two methods were used which included roost counts to find an estimate of the population, and a transect method using a Distance programme to estimate the number of birds per hectare as well as the level of abundance in various habitat types. The two methods had overlapping results, giving a total estimated range of 3250 to 8460 birds on the island, although it is more likely to be at the higher end of this estimate at around 6000 to7000 birds. Further investigation will need to determine any change in the population size, any changes in habitat composition as well as the impact on the native species, especially the effect on the Kura and its population size.