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Humanity has altered the planet in many detrimental ways, from the warming of our climate to the ever-diminishing wildernesses on land and in the sea. But in such a complex system as the Earth, science must always keep searching – for both solutions to problems already identified and new threats coming our way. UNEP’s Frontiers Report does this by identifying and exploring areas of emerging or ongoing environmental concern. The 2022 edition delves into three issues: noise pollution in cities, the growing threat of wildfires and shifts in seasonal events – such as flowering, migration and hibernation, an area of study known as phenology.

Humanity is waging war on nature. This is senseless and suicidal. The consequences of our recklessness are already apparent in human suffering, towering economic losses and the accelerating erosion of life on Earth. This report represents a scientific blueprint for howclimate change, biodiversity loss and pollution can be tackled jointly within the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals. The report is a synthesis based on evidence from global environmental assessments.

Invasive alien species are one of the primary threats to native biodiversity on islands worldwide, and their expansion continues due to global trade and travel. Preventing the arrival and establishment of highly successful invasive species through rigorous biosecurity is known to be more economic than the removal of these species once they have established. However, many islands around the world lack biosecurity regulations or practical measures and establishing biosecurity will require social and financial investments. Guiding these investments towards islands where native biodiversity is at highest risk from potential invasions is of strategic importance to maximise conservation benefit with limited resources. Here we implement an established prioritisation approach, previously used to identify which islands will have the greatest conservation gains from the eradication of invasive species, to identify which islands would benefit the most from establishing or improving biosecurity. We demonstrate this approach for 318 islands in the Caribbean UK Overseas Territories and Bermuda where we considered all threatened native terrestrial vertebrates that are vulnerable to the most harmful invasive vertebrates (black and brown rats, cats, small Indian mongoose, green iguana). The approach calculates the increase in conservation threat score resulting from anticipated negative effects of potential invaders on native biodiversity, and highlighted Sombrero (Anguilla) and Cayman Brac (Cayman Islands) as important islands where threatened reptile species would likely be eliminated if rats, feral cats or mongoose invaded. Feasibility and cost implications should now be investigated more closely on the highlighted islands. The prioritisation presented here can be expanded to more islands and more invasive/native taxa (herbivores, plants and invertebrates), but requires a classification of the severity of potential impacts between invasive and native species for which currently little information exists. Besides highlighting opportunities for biosecurity, this approach also highlights where knowledge gaps about population sizes of and threats to reptiles with restricted ranges exist.

The Orkney Islands, o? the north-east coast of Scotland, support highly significant?cant cultural and natural heritage. The combined land area of the 70 islands is 990 km2 (380 sq mi), 1% of the UK, but they host over 20% of the UK’s breeding hen harriers (Circus cyaneus) (declining over much of its mainland range), 8% of breeding curlews (Numenius arquata) (one of only two UK populations not in decline) and an internationally important assemblage of breeding seabirds. The Orkney Islands are naturally free of mammalian predators, and all bird species, including raptors, are ground-nesting in the largely treeless landscape. Rats (Rattus spp.), hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) and feral cats (Felis catus) are present across the archipelago. Stoats (Mustela erminea) are native to mainland UK but not Orkney, yet were detected on Orkney Mainland in 2010. Orkney Mainland has an area of 523 km2 (202 sq mi). Early attempts at removing them were not successful. By 2013 stoats were present across the Orkney Mainland and connected isles. In 2016, SNH and RSPB formed a partnership to eradicate stoats to protect the native wildlife and designated sites of the Orkney islands, and to secure the wider socio-economic and cultural bene?ts of thriving native wildlife. Di?culties faced in developing the project include predicting the e? ort required to remove stoats at a rate faster than they can reproduce, securing community support and access to private land and, in particular, funding large scale biodiversity restoration projects. A feasibility study determined that stoat eradication would be possible using DOC200 kill traps, and search dogs in later stages of the eradication. There are no legally available poisons that could be used on stoats in the UK. A Biosecurity Plan has been produced for the archipelago, with a current focus on preventing the spread of stoats to the uninvaded isles. The partnership is working to secure funds and community support for what will be the world’s largest stoat eradication attempted to date. We present the ?ndings of the feasibility study and our proposed methodology.

A successful ground-based eradication of black rats (Rattus rattus) was undertaken on the remote, uninhabited Shiant Isles of north-west Scotland over winter (14 October–28 March) 2015–16. The rat eradication was carried out as part of the Shiants Seabird Recovery Project, which aims to secure long-term breeding habitat for protected seabirds and to attract European storm petrels and Manx shearwaters to nest on the Shiants. Throughout the eradication operation, teams were stationed on two of the three main Shiant islands (Eilean an Tighe, Eilean Mhuire), with access to the third (Garbh Eilean) via a boulder causeway from Eilean an Tighe. Bait (Contrac® blocks containing the anticoagulant bromadiolone 0.005% w/w), was deployed in a grid of 1,183 bait stations covering all areas of the islands and sea stacks. Bait stations were set 50 m apart, with intervals reduced to 25 m in coastal areas of predicted high rat density. Difficult areas were accessed by boat and cliff s of ~120 m in height were accessed by abseiling down ropes made safe using either bolted anchors or ground stakes. The team of staff and volunteers worked through difficult conditions, deploying bait and monitoring intensively for any surviving rats using a combination of tools. The islands were declared rat free in March 2018. This ambitious and challenging project has greatly enhanced UK capacity in rodent eradications for the purposes of conservation.

The inextricable links between climate change and sustainable development have been increasingly recognised over the past decade. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)1 concluded with very high confidence that climate change would impede the ability of many nations to achieve sustainable development by mid-century and become a security risk that would steadily intensify, particularly under greater warming scenarios. Article 4.8 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) lists several groups of countries that merit particular consideration for assistance to adapt to climate change “especially: (a) small island countries, (b) countries with low-lying coastal areas, c) countries with areas prone to natural disasters.” Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have characteristics which make them particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise (SLR) and extreme events, including: relative isolation, small land masses, concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal areas, limited economic base and dependency on natural resources, combined with limited financial, technical and institutional capacity for adaptation.2

The nations of CARICOM16 in the Caribbean together with Pacific island countries contribute less than 1% to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (approx. 0.33%17 and 0.03%18 respectively), yet these countries are expected to be among the earliest and most impacted by climate change in the coming decades and are least able to adapt to climate change impacts. These nations’ relative isolation, small land masses, their concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal areas, limited economic base and dependency on natural resources, combined with limited financial, technical and institutional capacity all exacerbates their vulnerability to extreme events and climate change impacts. Stabilising global GHG emissions and obtaining greater support for adaptation strategies are fundamental priorities for the Caribbean Basin and Pacific island countries. CARICOM leaders recently unveiled their collective position that global warming should be held to no more than 1.5°C19 and continue to develop a Climate Change Strategic Plan. The Pacific island countries have expressed their priorities for addressing climate change regionally through the Pacific Leaders’ Call to Action on Climate Change20 and the Pacific Islands Framework for Action on Climate Change 2006-2015.21