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Three-month total rainfall is typically used for monitoring grasslands, shallow rooted plants and small water body (e.g. small water tanks, streams) moisture deficits. Allow for uncertainty associated with island size, topography, geology and soil type.

La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific with climate models suggest La Niña will persist until March 2022. The current Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse is moderate to strong and is expected to remain in this region over the next week or two. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active over the western warm pool region and eastern Pacific with a shift to the north from its normal position, while the South Pacific Conver-gence Zone (SPCZ) was active and shifted southwest around New Caledonia, Vanuatu to New Zealand.

The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in November shows SSTs were warmer than av-erage in the far western Pacific while cooler than average SSTs along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Coral bleaching status warning 'Alert Level 2' for parts of northern PNG mainland while 'Alert Level 1' for other parts of northern and southeast PNG, Palau and FSM. 'No stress' or 'watch' for the rest of COSPPac countries. Coral bleaching outlook remains at 'Alert Level 2' for north-ern and southern PNG for the next three weeks.

Three-month rainfall is typically used for monitoring grasslands, shallow rooted plants and small water body, moisture deficits.

Information provided has been given on a divisional scale as Pacific Island Countries can experience a high range of rainfall variability within country. It is possible to have forecasts which simultaneously favour above and below normal rainfall in different parts of the one country

A monthly and seasonal rainfall watch for the months of October to December 2021

The sea surface temperature a anomaly pattern in July shows SSTs were close to average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Coral bleaching status is no stress or no watch for almost all countries with patches of warning for western FSM.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Climate model outlooks indicate this neutral phase will last at least until September.•A moderate to strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse weakened prior moving into western Pacific

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Climate model outlooks indicate this neutral phase will last at least until September. With little sign of El Niño or La Niña developing, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status is INACTIVE.

Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures have persisted at ENSO neutral values for several weeks. Below the surface, much of the tropical Pacific is now at near average temperatures. Atmospheric indicators are also generally at neutral ENSO levels. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is close to zero, while trade winds are currently being enhanced by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Only cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show a weak La Niña like signature.