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This study brought together the experience, viewpoints and analysis of over 20 experts from the climate, biological, economic, policy and social sciences. The major focus of the study was to examine how the future might unfold for one of the most ecologically rich yet most populated regions of the planet. In doing so, this report has developed a series of policy recommendations which must be taken on board if we are to avoid a major environmental and human catastrophe. If we don’t do this, hundreds of thousands of unique species, entire communities and societies will be in jeopardy.

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1/ revealed that climate change is threatening the very basis of life. In fact, 20-30 per cent of species assessed so far will face increased risks of extinction if global temperatures increase by 1.5-2.5°C, and critical ecosystems are already being degraded. For example, over the past 100 years, the thickness of sea ice in the Arctic has decreased by 40 per cent, while total available water in the Niger, Lake Chad and Senegal basins has decreased by 40-60 per cent, In the face of such changes to the basic structure and functions of ecosystems, climate change is already forcing species to adapt either through shifting habitat, changing life-cycles, or the development of new physical traits.

Mangrove ecosystems are threatened by climate change. We review the state of knowledge of mangrove vulnerability and responses to predicted climate change and consider adaptation options. Based on available evidence, of all the climate change outcomes, relative sea-level rise may be the greatest threat to mangroves. Most mangrove sediment surface elevations are not keeping pace with sea-level rise, although longer term studies from a larger number of regions are needed. Rising sea-level will have the greatest impact on mangroves experiencing net lowering in sediment elevation, where there is limited area for landward migration. The Pacific Islands mangroves have been demonstrated to be at high risk of substantial reductions. There is less certainty over other climate change outcomes and mangrove responses. More research is needed on assessment methods and standard indicators of change in response to effects from climate change, while regional monitoring networks are needed to observe these responses to enable educated adaptation. Adaptation measures can offset anticipated mangrove losses and improve resistance and resilience to climate change. Coastal planning can adapt to facilitate mangrove migration with sea-level rise. Management of activities within the catchment that affect long-term trends in the mangrove sediment elevation, better management of other stressors on mangroves, rehabilitation of degraded mangrove areas, and increases in systems of strategically designed protected area networks that include mangroves and functionally linked ecosystems through representation, replication and refugia, are additional adaptation options.

Coral reef monitoring lias been an on-going activity in Samoa since 1997. In 1998. a pilot Village Level Coral Reef Monitoring Project (VLCRMP) was initiated in collaboration between The Fisheries Division, the Division of Environment & Conservation and the International Ocean Institute – Pacific Islands. The pilot project provided monitoring equipment and assisted in training the trainers that, in nuns trained 46 villagers from six villages selected from around the country ( Mulipola 2001 ). As a result of the project, several communities have members that are now equipped with the monitoring techniques and they are collaborate with staff of the FD implementing the monitoring of coral reefs in the established community-owned fish reserves.

The evolution and expansion of the human species over the past few hundred thousand years, an infinitesimal fraction of planetary time, now sees us as the dominant life form on Earth. We are dominant because of our intelligence and adaptability, and our need to constantly strive for newer and better ways of doing things. But there are now six billion of us, predicted to increase to 8-10 billion by 2050, and our domination of the planet is paralleled by the massive impact that we have had on the Earth's ecosystems. A recent mapping of the human footprint on the planet has concluded that more than 80% of the Earth's land surface is directly influenced by humans. We consume 40% of the Earth's net primary productivity, 35% of oceanic shelf productivity and 60% of freshwater runoff. As a result, remaining natural landscapes are rapidly being modified and the Earth's biological diversity continues to decline at an alarming rate. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) has found that in the last several decades 20% of the world’s coral reefs were lost and 20% degraded, while 35% of mangrove area has been lost. The MEA also concluded that humans have likely increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical throughout Earth's history.