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Development efforts are increasingly at risk. A faltering global economy, food and energy insecurity, conflict, global climate change, declining ecosystems, extreme poverty, and the threat of epidemics seriously challenge progress towards improving social welfare and economic growth in many developing countries. In 2008, the deaths of approximately 140,000 people in the Myanmar cyclone and the collapse of more than five million buildings and damage to 21 million more in the China earthquake, were stark reminders that disaster risks associated with tropical cyclones, floods, earthquakes, droughts and other natural hazards are a key part of this interlocked set of threats. The Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction focuses attention on that challenge. It identifies disaster risk, analyses its causes, shows that these causes can be addressed and recommends the means to do so. The over-riding message of the Report is that reducing disaster risk can also help in reducing poverty, safeguarding development and adapting to climate change, with beneficial effects on broader global security, stability and sustainability. Given the urgency posed by climate change, the Report forcefully argues the case for taking action now.

This study brought together the experience, viewpoints and analysis of over 20 experts from the climate, biological, economic, policy and social sciences. The major focus of the study was to examine how the future might unfold for one of the most ecologically rich yet most populated regions of the planet. In doing so, this report has developed a series of policy recommendations which must be taken on board if we are to avoid a major environmental and human catastrophe. If we don’t do this, hundreds of thousands of unique species, entire communities and societies will be in jeopardy.

The objective of this Pacific Ocean synthesis is to comprehensively and systematically survey the published scientific literature, government publications and other peer-reviewed reports to identify Pacific Ocean and regional threats as well as the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of those threats. In addition, the report highlights select regional and Pacific Ocean solutions presented by the literature. This report summarizes and distills the scientific literature and highlights common trends in and around the Pacific Ocean regarding threats, impacts and solutions through the review of more than 3400 scientific articles and reports. It also reveals gaps in knowledge and areas where more natural and social science research is needed that could inform coastal and ocean policy and management. For this analysis, the Pacific Ocean was organized into seven regions representing 50 countries or territories. Results from this synthesis were vetted and verified by over 30 natural, physical, and social scientists from around the Pacific who convened in Honolulu, Hawaii in August 2008 (Appendix A). The meeting, which used the synthesis as the foundation for discussion, resulted in the creation of the document, “Ecosystems and People of the Pacific Ocean—Threats and Opportunities for Action: A Consensus Statement.” This statement, which has been signed by more than 375 scientists, identifies and prioritizes key threats to the health and productivity of the Pacific Ocean, many accelerated by global climate change, for which broad consensus exists in the scientific community. It also highlights the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of these threats and outlines a “road map” that identifies available solutions for these threats.

As recently as a decade ago, discussions about climate change were nearly exclusively the province of experts in environmental and atmospheric science. In doubt about the reliability of available information on the causes and effects of climate change, world opinion leaders as well as the wider public scuttled around questions about how much they could actually achieve or, indeed, whether it was even necessary to do anything at all. Today, the effects of climate change are felt all over the world and climate change is no longer a theory or a meteorological model that interests only a few people. Because of the scientific work that has been done, more people now understand how human activities are hastening it. There is also more and more recognition that climate change seriously threatens sustainable human development. Now and in future, it affects or will affect agriculture, energy, human health, food security, the economy, and physical infrastructure.

Each year, on average, almost 250 million people are affected by ‘natural’ disasters. In a typical year between 1998 and 2007, 98 per cent of them suffered from climate-related disasters such as droughts and floods rather than, for example, devastating but relatively rare events such as earthquakes. According to new research for this report, by 2015 this could grow by more than 50 per cent to an average of over 375 million affected by climate-related disasters each year. Any such projection is not an exact science, but it is clear that substantially more people may be affected by disasters in the very near, not just distant, future, as climate change and environmental mismanagement create a proliferation of droughts, landslides, floods and other local disasters. And more people will be vulnerable to them because of their poverty and location. Some of these environmental changes will also increase the threat of new conflicts, which will mean more people displaced, and more need for humanitarian aid. One recent report estimated that 46 countries will face a ‘high risk of violent conflict’ when climate change exacerbates traditional security threats. Already, there is evidence that the number of conflicts is again on the rise,5 while the threat of long-running conflicts creating vast new humanitarian demands was painfully shown by the upsurge of violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in 2008. In short, by 2015, an unprecedented level of need for humanitarian assistance could overwhelm the world’s current humanitarian capacity. Already, many governments fail to cope with threats like storms, floods and earthquakes. They fail to act quickly or effectively enough in response to these events, or to take preventative action to reduce unnecessary deaths and suffering. Indeed, the very actions of some governments and their national elites place marginalised people at risk from disasters by discriminating against them, like those forced to live in flimsy slum housing so easily destroyed by floods and landslips. At the same time, international humanitarian assistance is often too slow or inappropriate, and the UN-led reforms since 2005 to improve it have only begun to make a difference.

This article reflects upon how gendered approaches to climate-change adaptation can be strengthened in the Pacific region. The article looks at what has been learnt in the region, surveys some examples of best practice in gender-responsive programming, identifies the challenges we face on our journey, and suggests future directions. It is a collaborative effort, comprising input from a number of agencies who have been proactive in the areas of gender, climate change, and disaster risk-reduction in the Pacific Region, including: the Red Cross/Red Crescent Movement in the Pacific region; the UNDP Pacific Centre; and World Wildlife Fund’s (WWF) Fiji Country Programme.

Throughout its history, Earth’s climate has varied, reflecting the complex interactions and dependencies of the solar, oceanic, terrestrial, atmospheric, and living components that make up planet Earth’s systems. For at least the last million years, our world has experienced cycles of warming and cooling that take approximately 100,000 years to complete. Over the course of each cycle, global average temperatures have fallen and then risen again by about 9°F (5°C), each time taking Earth into an ice age and then warming it again. This cycle is believed associated with regular changes in Earth’s orbit that alter the intensity of solar energy the planet receives. Earth’s climate has also been influenced on very long timescales by changes in ocean circulation that result from plate tectonic movements. Earth’s climate has changed abruptly at times, sometimes as a result of slower natural processes such as shifts in ocean circulation, sometimes due to sudden events such as massive volcanic eruptions. Species and ecosystems have either adapted to these past climate variations or perished.

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1/ revealed that climate change is threatening the very basis of life. In fact, 20-30 per cent of species assessed so far will face increased risks of extinction if global temperatures increase by 1.5-2.5°C, and critical ecosystems are already being degraded. For example, over the past 100 years, the thickness of sea ice in the Arctic has decreased by 40 per cent, while total available water in the Niger, Lake Chad and Senegal basins has decreased by 40-60 per cent, In the face of such changes to the basic structure and functions of ecosystems, climate change is already forcing species to adapt either through shifting habitat, changing life-cycles, or the development of new physical traits.

The Pacific region has benefited from a number of regional and national programmes to both assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and develop programmes to adapt to climate change. Such programmes are critical considering that the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1/ states that the Pacific region has already experienced temperature increases of as much as 1°C since 1910. Furthermore, studies found more than a doubling m the number of category 4 and 5 storms in the South-West Pacific from the period 1975-1989 to the period 1990-2004. Future predicted impacts of climate change in the Pacific call for increased beach erosion, a loss of sea-turtle nesting sites, more frequent coral-bleaching events, increased exposure to invasive alien species and increased cyclone-induced tree mortality and flooding.