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The Asia and Pacific region is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Unabated warming could significantly undo previous achievements of economic development and improvements of living standards. At the same time, the region has both the economic capacity and weight of influence to change the present fossil-fuel based development pathway and curb global emissions. This report sheds light on the regional implications of the latest projections of changes in climate conditions over Asia and the Pacific. The assessment concludes that, even under the Paris consensus scenario in which global warming is limited to 1.5°C to 2°C above preindustrial levels, some of the land area, ecosystems, and socioeconomic sectors will be significantly affected by climate change impacts, to which policy makers and the investment community need to adapt to. However, under a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, which will cause a global mean temperature rise of over 4°C by the end of this century, the possibilities for adaptation are drastically reduced. Among others, climate change impacts such as the deterioration of the Asian “water towers”, prolonged heat waves, coastal sea-level rise and changes in rainfall patterns could disrupt ecosystem services and lead to severe effects on livelihoods which in turn would affect human health, migration dynamics and the potential for conflicts. This assessment also underlines that, for many areas vital to the region’s economy, research on the effects of climate change is still lacking.

This chapter outlines some of the links between human security and climate change in the Pacific Islands. It demonstrates that climate change poses significant risks to human security in the region. The links between climate change, human security, and instability and conflict are also explored. It seems unlikely that climate change will be the principal cause of violent conflict in the region in the future, but it may increase the risk of violent conflict in some places. The chapter argues that in order to increase human security in the region and avoid possible conflict and instability, climate-change adaptation strategies must be implemented.

As environmental problems continue to increase at an ever more rapid rate, exacerbated by the major threat of global climate change, the need for widespread remedial action is becoming ever more pressing. Scientific consensus on both the root causes of these problems and the measures required to tackle them is growing, while mass media and public interest has reached fever pitch. Of course, while this has put pressure on decisionmakers to take positive action, the realisation of the gravity and extent of the environmental problems has encouraged all those concerned about the state of our world to search for partners around it: one such significant partnership to e­merge in recent years is between those concerned with the conservation of nature –and of its biodiversity– and the custodians of sacred sites, representing both indigenous beliefs and mainstream faiths.

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1/ revealed that climate change is threatening the very basis of life. In fact, 20-30 per cent of species assessed so far will face increased risks of extinction if global temperatures increase by 1.5-2.5°C, and critical ecosystems are already being degraded. For example, over the past 100 years, the thickness of sea ice in the Arctic has decreased by 40 per cent, while total available water in the Niger, Lake Chad and Senegal basins has decreased by 40-60 per cent, In the face of such changes to the basic structure and functions of ecosystems, climate change is already forcing species to adapt either through shifting habitat, changing life-cycles, or the development of new physical traits.

Observational records and climate projections provide abundant evidence that freshwater resources are vulnerable and have the potential to be strongly impacted by climate change, with wide-ranging consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Observed warming over several decades has been linked to changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle such as: increasing atmospheric water vapour content; changing precipitation patterns, intensity and extremes; reduced snow cover and widespread melting of ice; and changes in soil moisture and runoff. Precipitation changes show substantial spatial and inter-decadal variability. Over the 20th century, precipitation has mostly increased over land in high northern latitudes, while decreases have dominated from 10°S to 30°N since the 1970s. The frequency of heavy precipitation events (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) has increased over most areas (likely). Globally, the area of land classified as very dry has more than doubled since the 1970s (likely). There have been significant decreases in water storage in mountain glaciers and Northern Hemisphere snow cover. Shifts in the amplitude and timing of runoff in glacier- and snowmelt-fed rivers, and in ice-related phenomena in rivers and lakes, have been observed (high confidence).

Ice, snow and climate change are closely linked. The Global Outlook for Ice and Snow investigates those linkages. It also presents information on the trends in ice and snow, the outlook for this century and beyond and the consequences to ecosystems and human well-being of these changes. It covers all parts of the cryosphere (the world of ice): snow, land ice, sea ice, river and lake ice, and frozen ground. The Global Outlook for Ice and Snow was written by more than 70 scientists from around the world.

Coral reefs are one of the most spectacular and valuable ecosystems on the planet — and one of the most threatened. Climate change, coastal development and tourism, destructive fishing, and other human activities are endangering their very existence. At the current rate of destruction, more than one-third of the world’s coral reefs will be destroyed within our lifetime. This will mean devastating losses in biological diversity, shoreline protection, income, food, and scientific discoveries. However bad the outlook may seem, there is still hope for coral reefs. With increased education comes an increased appreciation and understanding of the immense value of coral reefs. This has led to exciting initiatives and conservation projects in countries throughout the world. Coral reef protected areas are being established worldwide and are considered one of the best tools for reef protection.

International waters is one of four focal areas of the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The GEF was created in 1994 to provide financing for programmes and projects to achieve global environment benefits in four focal areas: ?? biodiversity; ?? climate change; ?? international waters; and ?? and ozone layer depletion. International waters include oceans, large marine ecosystems, enclosed or semi-enclosed seas and estuaries as well as rivers, lakes, groundwater systems, and wetlands with trans-boundary drainage basins or common borders involving two or more countries. The ecosystems and habitats associated with these waters are essential parts of the system (IWP 2002c).

Tuvalu's mainland is only about 3,300km from Australia, and they are familiar enough to use the Australian dollar as their national currency. Is global warming only a national threat for Tuvalu and their immediate regional neighbours or for Australia too? It is not just about geography - it is necessary to consider the effect of global warming on world health, migration, defence policy, trade and, ultimately, the threat of foreign conflicts, organized crime and terrorism.