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Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 21 March: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°Cabove normal are favoured in the following country EEZs: Palau, Guam, most of CNMI, most of FSM, far northern RMI, most of PNG, northern Solomon Is., northern Cook Is., most of French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in southern Palau, northern PNG, southeastern French Polynesia and southwestern Pitcairn Is. Elsewhere SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 14 March: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°Cabove normal are favoured in the following country EEZs: Palau, Guam, most of CNMI, most of FSM, far northern RMI, most of PNG, northwestern Solomon Is., eastern Fiji, central Tonga, central Cook Is., most of French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Is. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in southern Palau, northern PNG, southeastern French Polynesia and southwestern Pitcairn Is. Elsewhere SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 31 January: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8°Cabove normal are favoured in the following country EEZs: Palau, Guam, CNMI, most of FSM, central and northwestern RMI, most of PNG, central and western Solomon Is., northern New Caledonia, Vanuatu, southern Fiji, southern Tonga, southern Niue, and southern French Polynesia. SST anomalies above 1.2°C are favoured in far southwestern Palau, central CNMI, southwestern FSM, parts of PNG, and southern French Polynesia. Elsewhere SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 17 January: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8 °Cabove normal are present in the following country EEZs: Palau, Guam, CNMI, most of FSM, central and northern RMI, PNG, most of Solomon Is., northern New Caledonia, eastern Vanuatu, southern Fiji, southern Tonga, southern Niue, southern Cook Is., and southern French Polynesia. SST anomalies above 1.2 °C are favoured in Palau, central CNMI, southwestern FSM, and northern PNG. SSTs more than 0.8 °Cbelow normal are present across the northern Phoenix and Line Islands (Kiribati). Elsewhere SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

For April- June 2023, the models unanimously agree on above normal raindall for most of FSM, central Marshall islands, the southeast of PNG's EEX, southern Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. There are also unaimous in showing that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for southern parts of central and eastern Kiribati, Tokelau, northern Cook Islands and northern French Polynesia.

La Nina has weakened in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is likely near it end. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in February 2023 were cooler than average across much of the tropical Pacific Ocean, extending from around 165°E in a broadening wedge to the South America coastline.

For Pacific Island countries in the western and central Pacific, region, there is a small region where below normal rainfall is likely or very likely stretching east and southeast from northeast PNG islands in the west, to a larger region in central Kiribati in east, and further to Cook Islands and French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island in the southeast

For Pacific Island countries in the western and central Pacific region, there is a large region where very dry is likely for the coming season, this stretches east from northwest PNG in the west, to French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island in the east.

La nina continues in the tropical Pacific, but oceanic indicators (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) have weakened since their peak during spring 2022.

La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific and models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral SSTs in January or February 2023.