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In June, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was weak and displayed north of its normal location and observed mainly in the western Pacific along Philippines, Palau, western FSM, Guam, and RMI. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was active and located over its normal average location over PNG, Solomon Islands and southern Tuvalu

Ocean Outlook, fortnight to 17 January: • Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts more than 0.8 °Cabove normal are present in the following country EEZs: Palau, Guam, CNMI, most of FSM, central and northern RMI, PNG, most of Solomon Is., northern New Caledonia, eastern Vanuatu, southern Fiji, southern Tonga, southern Niue, southern Cook Is., and southern French Polynesia. SST anomalies above 1.2 °C are favoured in Palau, central CNMI, southwestern FSM, and northern PNG. SSTs more than 0.8 °Cbelow normal are present across the northern Phoenix and Line Islands (Kiribati). Elsewhere SSTs are predicted to be near-normal.

The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Centre (PI-RCC) considers that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific remains neutral. While many of the indicators have recently met the threshold for La Niña they have not been sustained for levels or duration sufficient to warrant La Niña status.

For April- June 2023, the models unanimously agree on above normal raindall for most of FSM, central Marshall islands, the southeast of PNG's EEX, southern Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. There are also unaimous in showing that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for southern parts of central and eastern Kiribati, Tokelau, northern Cook Islands and northern French Polynesia.

La Nina has weakened in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is likely near it end. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in February 2023 were cooler than average across much of the tropical Pacific Ocean, extending from around 165°E in a broadening wedge to the South America coastline.

For Pacific Island countries in the western and central Pacific, region, there is a small region where below normal rainfall is likely or very likely stretching east and southeast from northeast PNG islands in the west, to a larger region in central Kiribati in east, and further to Cook Islands and French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island in the southeast

For Pacific Island countries in the western and central Pacific region, there is a large region where very dry is likely for the coming season, this stretches east from northwest PNG in the west, to French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island in the east.

La nina continues in the tropical Pacific, but oceanic indicators (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) have weakened since their peak during spring 2022.

La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific and models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral SSTs in January or February 2023.

Key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO reflect a mature La Niña. Models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral in January or February 2023.