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The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (IPCC AR4) Working Group II (2007) identifies small island states as being among the most vulnerable countries of the world to the adverse impacts of climate change. Hay, el al.y (2003) in discussing the Pacific's observed climate noted that compared to earlier historical records during the twentieth century, the southern Pacific had experienced a significantly drier and warmer climate (by 15 percent and 0.8°C, respectively). The Central Equatorial Pacific is facing more intensive rain (about 30 percent) and a similarly hotter climate (0.6°C), and sea surface temperatures in both areas have increased by about 0.4°C. These conditions are linked to an increased frequency of El Nino episodes since the 1970s (without alternating La Nina events). Other studies show that climate projections for the South Pacific indicate warming of 0.8 to 1.8°C and precipitation changes that range from -8 to +7 percent by mid-century (Ruosteenoja, el ai, 2003). By the end of the century, projected warming is 1.0 to 3.1°C and precipitation changes range from -14 to +14 percent. Projections of globally averaged sea-level rise range from 0.18 m to 0.58 m in 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999; while tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense, have higher peak wind speeds, and bring heavier rainfall (IPCC, 2007). Thus, it is clear that there are winners and losers when it comes to climate and food security with mostly the countries in the mid to higher latitudes benefiting from global warming and the small island countries of the Pacific in the warmer latitudes standing to lose the most. The IPCC has concluded that the mounting evidence shows that climate change is unequivocally happening and may worsen in future; there is a need to act urgently to minimize these impacts.

Niue is a single raised coral atoll in the South-central Pacific located at latitude 19 S and Longitude 169 W. It is isolated, being approximately 480 kilometre East of Tonga. 930 kilometre west of Rarotonga and 660 kilometre South-East of Samoa. The island is the largest raised coral atoll in the world, being 259 square kilometers and formed of two terraces: a lower terrace averaging about 60 metres. The interior is a plateau, the edge of which slopes steeply down to the lower terrace. This lower terrace ends abruptly in most places in steep cliffs containing caves and deep chasms

The endemic kereru (Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae) (also known as kuku, kukupa or New Zealand pigeon, but henceforth referred to as kereru) and the Chatham Island subspecies, parea (Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae chathamensis), are the only extant representatives of the genus Hemiphaga. A programme has been set up to monitor kereru populations. The aim of this monitoring programme is to provide a clearer picture of medium- to long-term trends in kereru populations at key sites (e.g., mainland “island” management sites and their paired non-treatment sites), and to document the responses of kereru populations to management actions. This report sets out the requirements for monitoring kereru at key sites as part of a national programme. In addition, it is intended to be used as a practical guide for anyone (e.g., iwi, conservation groups, school groups) planning to initiate a kereru monitoring project. The most efficient way of detecting and interpreting kereru population trends is considered to be by undertaking 5-minute counts with distance estimates in conjunction with phenology monitoring and display flight monitoring. It is therefore recommended that others use these methods wherever possible. A section on other techniques is included to cover situations where 5-minute counts may not be practicable. Wherever possible, kereru monitoring should be integrated into existing Department of Conservation bird monitoring and management programmes, rather than requiring the initiation of new projects. Iwi, conservation groups and interested members of the public will be encouraged to participate in kereru monitoring and conservation management. Annual results from each site should be forwarded to the programme co-ordinator, who will review and collate the data, and prepare an annual report for distribution to all participants and interested parties. Explanation of the programme, relevant aspects of kereru ecology, and background information are provided in the main text. Descriptions of the actual methods are given in the appendices.

Bird conservation in the Pacific islands