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The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (IPCC AR4) Working Group II (2007) identifies small island states as being among the most vulnerable countries of the world to the adverse impacts of climate change. Hay, el al.y (2003) in discussing the Pacific's observed climate noted that compared to earlier historical records during the twentieth century, the southern Pacific had experienced a significantly drier and warmer climate (by 15 percent and 0.8°C, respectively). The Central Equatorial Pacific is facing more intensive rain (about 30 percent) and a similarly hotter climate (0.6°C), and sea surface temperatures in both areas have increased by about 0.4°C. These conditions are linked to an increased frequency of El Nino episodes since the 1970s (without alternating La Nina events). Other studies show that climate projections for the South Pacific indicate warming of 0.8 to 1.8°C and precipitation changes that range from -8 to +7 percent by mid-century (Ruosteenoja, el ai, 2003). By the end of the century, projected warming is 1.0 to 3.1°C and precipitation changes range from -14 to +14 percent. Projections of globally averaged sea-level rise range from 0.18 m to 0.58 m in 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999; while tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense, have higher peak wind speeds, and bring heavier rainfall (IPCC, 2007). Thus, it is clear that there are winners and losers when it comes to climate and food security with mostly the countries in the mid to higher latitudes benefiting from global warming and the small island countries of the Pacific in the warmer latitudes standing to lose the most. The IPCC has concluded that the mounting evidence shows that climate change is unequivocally happening and may worsen in future; there is a need to act urgently to minimize these impacts.

Between 1892 and 1930, 58 percent (30 taxa) of Hawaiian endemic forest birds either were greatly reduced or became extinct. The order in which the islands experienced major declines ofseveral forest birds is Oahu (ca. 1873-1887), Hawaii (1892-1900), Mo10kai (1893-1907), Maui (18941901), Kauai (after 1900), and Lanai (1926-1932). Loss of habitat, reduced food supply, introduced avian diseases, as well as predation by man, feral cats, mongooses, and Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) all appear to have reduced some species ofbirds, but none ofthese factors adequately explains the accelerated rates ofdecline offorest birds that occurred after 1892. Although it has been assumed that roofrats (Rattus rattus) reached Hawaii with the first European ships at the end of the 18th century, there is circumstantial evidence, independent of the bird decline data, that indicates that this rat did not arrive until after 1840, probably between 1870 and 1880. The hypothesis is advanced that after its establishment on Oahu in the 1870s, R. rattus spread to the remaining large islands in the group, resulting in a stepwise accelerated decline offorest birds on each island in turn. Hawaii thus parallels some other Pacific islands where major reductions of birds have followed the establishment of R. rattus. The need for precautions to prevent rats from reaching rat-free islands in the Hawaiian group is emphasized.