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The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development considered likely in the coming weeks, despite the current lack of atmospheric response. When El Niño Alert criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time.

A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is under way. The IOD index has been very close to or exceeded negative IOD thresholds (i.e., at or below -0.4 °C) over the past eight weeks. All climate model outlooks surveyed indicate that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue into late spring (October-November). A negative IOD event is associated with above average winter to spring rainfall for much of Australia.