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The Pacific Resilience Partnership was established by Pacific Island Forum Leaders in September 2017 to support the implementation of the Framework for Resilient Development in the Pacific: An Integrated Approach to Address Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 2017–2030 (FRDP).

The Pacific Ocean is currently ENSO - neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño), with anomalous warmth in both the east and west of the basin. While oceanic ENSO indicators have continued to warm and are forecast to reach El Niño thresholds during winter, there has been little to no shift towards El Niño in atmospheric ENSO indicators

This report describes variability and change in Pacific Island climates, drawing on the latest meteorological and oceanographic data, information, and analyses.

La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific with models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral in Janu-ary or February 2023.

La Nina continues with models indicating a return to ENSO-neutral conditions. (neither La nina nor El Nino) early in 2023

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The Bureau's ENSO Outlook continues at La Niña indicating at least a 70% chance of La Niña reforming later this year. This is around triple the normal likelihood. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia and western Pacific during spring and summer.

The pandemic further widened existing inequalities and vulnerabilities. Evidence also shows the reversal of hard-won gains in poverty reduction in several countries in the region. All this is happening alongside intensifying environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, and te continued onslaught of natural hazards and climate change.

A mature La Niña event remains active in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest the 2021-22 La Niña is near or at its peak, with a return to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) likely early in the southern hemisphere autumn (March 2022).