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El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific. Higher than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific persist above El Niño thresholds, with warmer water beneath the surface to support that at the surface. In the atmos-phere, cloud, wind and pressure patterns are consistent with El Niño.

Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) for November 2023 showed a mature El Niño pattern. Across much of the tropical Pacific between 10°S and 10°N, SSTs were more than 0.8°C above the long-term average, increasing to nearly 3°C above average east of the Date Line.

El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific. Higher than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific persist above El Niño thresholds, with warmer water beneath the surface to support that at the surface. In the atmos-phere, cloud, wind and pressure patterns are consistent with El Niño.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are exceeding El Niño thresholds and have Oceanic indicators firmly exhibit an El Niño state. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to exceed El Niño thresholds. Models indicate further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely.

Oceanic indicators firmly exhibit an El Niño state. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) con-tinue to exceed El Niño thresholds. Models indicate further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely. During September, the trade winds were generally weak across the rest of the equatorial Pacific with some westerlies occurring in the western Pacific.

The Coral bleaching Outlook to 24 September shows patches of area of 'Alert Level 1 and 2' over Kiribati (central Gilbert, northern Phoenix and northern Line Islands).

The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development considered likely in the coming weeks, despite the current lack of atmospheric response.

The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development considered likely in the coming weeks, despite the current lack of atmospheric response. When El Niño Alert criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time.

The 3-month rainfall status for April to June 2023 was Very Dry or Seriously Dry stretching eastwards from eastern Solomon Islands, through Tuvalu, northern Fiji, Kiribati (southern halves of central and eastern), northern Wallis and Futuna, Tokelau, patches in Samoa and American Samoa, northern Cook Islands, and northern French Polynesia. In addition, a area of Very Dry and Seriously Dry lay over the Coral Sea, western New Caledonia and southeast towards Norfork Island.

For July-September 2023, the models agree on above normal rainfall being likely or very likely for northern Palau, Guam, FSM, central and southern RMI, PNG's Momase Region and south-east PNG, northern Solomon Islands, Nauru, northern Tuvalu, and Kiribati. The models also agree on below normal rainfall being likely or very likely for much of CNMI, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, American Samoa, central and southern Cook Islands, and northern French Polynesia