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The inextricable links between climate change and sustainable development have been increasingly recognised over the past decade. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)1 concluded with very high confidence that climate change would impede the ability of many nations to achieve sustainable development by mid-century and become a security risk that would steadily intensify, particularly under greater warming scenarios. Article 4.8 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) lists several groups of countries that merit particular consideration for assistance to adapt to climate change “especially: (a) small island countries, (b) countries with low-lying coastal areas, c) countries with areas prone to natural disasters.” Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have characteristics which make them particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise (SLR) and extreme events, including: relative isolation, small land masses, concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal areas, limited economic base and dependency on natural resources, combined with limited financial, technical and institutional capacity for adaptation.2

The nations of CARICOM16 in the Caribbean together with Pacific island countries contribute less than 1% to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (approx. 0.33%17 and 0.03%18 respectively), yet these countries are expected to be among the earliest and most impacted by climate change in the coming decades and are least able to adapt to climate change impacts. These nations’ relative isolation, small land masses, their concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal areas, limited economic base and dependency on natural resources, combined with limited financial, technical and institutional capacity all exacerbates their vulnerability to extreme events and climate change impacts. Stabilising global GHG emissions and obtaining greater support for adaptation strategies are fundamental priorities for the Caribbean Basin and Pacific island countries. CARICOM leaders recently unveiled their collective position that global warming should be held to no more than 1.5°C19 and continue to develop a Climate Change Strategic Plan. The Pacific island countries have expressed their priorities for addressing climate change regionally through the Pacific Leaders’ Call to Action on Climate Change20 and the Pacific Islands Framework for Action on Climate Change 2006-2015.21

Tropical forests are suffering from increasing intensities and frequency of disturbances. As a result, non-native species accidentally introduced or intentionally planted for farming, plantations, and ornamental purposes may spread and potentially invade undisturbed native forest. It is not known if these introduced species will become invasive, as a result of recurrent natural disturbances such as hurricanes. Using data from three censuses (spanning 15 years) of a 16-ha subtropical wet forest plot, we investigated the impact of two hurricanes on populations of plant species that were planted in farms and plantations that were then abandoned and from the natural spread of species introduced into Puerto Rico in the past. The populations of four species (Citrus paradis, Mangifera indica, Musa sp., and Simarouba glauca) changed little over time. Six species (Artocarpus altilis, Calophyllum calaba, Genipa americana, Hibiscus pernambucensis, Syzygium jambos, and Swietenia macrophylla) declined between the first two censuses after Hurricane Hugo, then increased again in Census 3 after Hurricane Georges. Spathodea campanulata gradually increased from census to census, while Coffea arabica declined. These introduced species represent only a small part of the forest basal area and few show signs of increasing over time. The number of stems per plant, new recruits, and the growth rates of these introduced species were within the ranges of those for native plant species. The mortality rates over both census intervals were significantly lower for introduced species ( 5% year?1) than for native ones (15% year?1). Many new recruits established after Hurricane Hugo (prior to this study) had opened the forest canopy and these high mortality rates reflect their death as the canopy recovered. Only Swietenia macrophylla and Syzygium jambos showed an increase in stem numbers in the closed canopy area of forest that had suffered limited human disturbance in the past. A future increase in frequency of disturbance may enable greater stem numbers of introduced species to establish, while lower-mortality rates compared to native species, may allow them to persist during inter-hurricane intervals. An increase in the population of introduced species, especially for those that grow into large trees, may have an impact on this tropical forest in the future.