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We are certain that human activities result in increased emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, with a consequent increase in their atmospheric concentrations and thence enhanced radiative forcing on the atmosphere. There is very high certainty that such changes lead to global warming and global sea-level rise.

The likelihood (i.e. probability) components of c limate-related risks in Samoa are evaluated for both present day and future conditions. Changes over time reflect the influence of global warming. The risks evaluated are extreme rainfall events (both six-hourly and daily), drought, high sea levels, extreme winds and extreme high air and water temperatures. Projections of future climate-related risk are based on the output of global climate models, for given emission scenarios. All the likelihood co mponents of the climate-related risks show increases as a result of global warming, though for some the increases are small relative to the uncertainties. Best estimates of long term, systematic changes in the average climate for Samoa indicate that by 2050 sea level is likely to have increas ed by 36 cm, rainfall by 1.2%, extreme wind gusts by 7% and maximum temperatures by 0.7 C.

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