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Invasive rodents are successful colonists of many ecosystems around the world, and can have very flexible foraging behaviours that lead to differences in spatial ranges and seasonal demography among individuals and islands. Understanding such spatial and temporal information is critical to plan rodent eradication operations, and a detailed examination of an island’s rat population can expand our knowledge about possible variation in behaviour and demography of invasive rats in general. Here we investigated the movements and survival of Pacific rats (Rattus exulans) over five months on sub-tropical Henderson Island in the South Pacific Ocean four years after a failed eradication operation. We estimated movement distances, home range sizes and monthly survival using a spatially-explicit Cormack-Jolly-Seber model and examined how movement and survival varied over time. We captured and marked 810 rats and found a median maximum distance between capture locations of 39 ± 25 m (0–107 m) in a coastal coconut grove and 61 ± 127 m (0–1,023 m) on the inland coral plateau. Estimated home range radii of Pacific rats on the coral plateau varied between ‘territorial’ (median: 134 m; 95% credible interval 106–165 m) and ‘roaming’ rats (median: 778 m; 290–1,633 m). The proportion of rats belonging to the ‘roaming’ movement type varied from 1% in early June to 23% in October. There was no evidence to suggest that rats on Henderson in 2015 had home ranges that would limit their ability to encounter bait, making it unlikely that limited movement contributed to the eradication failure if the pattern we found in 2015 is consistent across years. We found a temporal pattern in monthly survival probability, with monthly survival probabilities of 0.352 (0.081–0.737) in late July and 0.950 (0.846–0.987) in late August. If seasonal variation in survival probability is indicative of resource limitations and consistent across years, an eradication operation in late July would likely have the greatest probability of success.

Rodent eradications are a useful tool for the restoration of native biodiversity on islands, but occasionally these operations incur non-target mortality. Changes in cereal bait colour could potentially mitigate these impacts but must not compromise the eradication operation. Changing bait colour may reduce mortality of Henderson crakes (Zapornia atra), an endemic globally threatened flightless bird on Henderson Island, Pitcairn Islands, South Pacific Ocean. Crakes had high non-target mortality in a failed 2011 rat eradication operation and consumed fewer blue than green cereal pellets. We examined which cereal bait properties influenced its acceptance by captive Pacific rats (Rattus exulans) on Henderson Island. We held 82 Pacific rats from Henderson Island in captivity and provided them with non-toxic cereal bait pellets of varying properties (blue or green, moist or dry). We estimated the proportion of rats consuming bait using logistic generalised linear mixed models. We found no effect of sex, females’ reproductive status, bait colour or bait moisture on rats’ willingness to consume baits. Rats’ bait consumption was unaffected by cereal bait properties (colour or moisture). The use of blue bait is unlikely to affect future eradication operational success but may reduce non-target mortality of Henderson crakes. Timing cereal bait distribution in relation to precipitation may also reduce crake mortality without compromising palatability to rats.

Rodent eradications in tropical environments are often more challenging and less successful than those in temperate environments. Reduced seasonality and the lack of a defined annual resource pulse influence rodent population dynamics differently than the well-defined annual cycles on temperate islands, so an understanding of rodent ecology and population dynamics is important to maximise the chances of eradication success in the tropics. Here, we report on the recovery of a Pacific rat (Rattus exulans) population on Henderson Island, South Pacific Ocean, following a failed eradication operation in 2011. We assessed changes in the rat population using capture rates from snap-trapping and investigated seasonality by using capture rates from live-trapping. Following the failed eradication operation in 2011, rat populations increased rapidly with annual per capita growth rates, r, of 0.48–5.95, increasing from 60–80 individuals to two-thirds of the pre-eradication abundance within two years, before decreasing (r = -0.25 – -0.20), presumably as the population fluctuated around its carrying capacity. The long-term changes in rat abundance may, however, be confounded by short-term fluctuations: four years after the eradication attempt we observed significant variation in rat trapping rates among months on the plateau, ranging from 36.6 rats per 100 corrected trap-nights in mid-June to 12.6 in late August. Based on mark-recapture, we also estimated rat density fluctuations in the embayment forest between 20.4 and 42.9 rats ha-1 within one month in 2015, and a much lower rat density on the coral plateau fluctuating between 0.76 and 6.08 rats ha-1 in the span of two months. The causes for the short-term density fluctuations are poorly understood, but as eradication operations on tropical and subtropical islands become more frequent, it will be increasingly important to understand the behaviour and ecology of the invasive species targeted to identify times that maximise eradication success.

The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (IPCC AR4) Working Group II (2007) identifies small island states as being among the most vulnerable countries of the world to the adverse impacts of climate change. Hay, el al.y (2003) in discussing the Pacific's observed climate noted that compared to earlier historical records during the twentieth century, the southern Pacific had experienced a significantly drier and warmer climate (by 15 percent and 0.8°C, respectively). The Central Equatorial Pacific is facing more intensive rain (about 30 percent) and a similarly hotter climate (0.6°C), and sea surface temperatures in both areas have increased by about 0.4°C. These conditions are linked to an increased frequency of El Nino episodes since the 1970s (without alternating La Nina events). Other studies show that climate projections for the South Pacific indicate warming of 0.8 to 1.8°C and precipitation changes that range from -8 to +7 percent by mid-century (Ruosteenoja, el ai, 2003). By the end of the century, projected warming is 1.0 to 3.1°C and precipitation changes range from -14 to +14 percent. Projections of globally averaged sea-level rise range from 0.18 m to 0.58 m in 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999; while tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense, have higher peak wind speeds, and bring heavier rainfall (IPCC, 2007). Thus, it is clear that there are winners and losers when it comes to climate and food security with mostly the countries in the mid to higher latitudes benefiting from global warming and the small island countries of the Pacific in the warmer latitudes standing to lose the most. The IPCC has concluded that the mounting evidence shows that climate change is unequivocally happening and may worsen in future; there is a need to act urgently to minimize these impacts.