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The Asia and Pacific region is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Unabated warming could significantly undo previous achievements of economic development and improvements of living standards. At the same time, the region has both the economic capacity and weight of influence to change the present fossil-fuel based development pathway and curb global emissions. This report sheds light on the regional implications of the latest projections of changes in climate conditions over Asia and the Pacific. The assessment concludes that, even under the Paris consensus scenario in which global warming is limited to 1.5°C to 2°C above preindustrial levels, some of the land area, ecosystems, and socioeconomic sectors will be significantly affected by climate change impacts, to which policy makers and the investment community need to adapt to. However, under a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, which will cause a global mean temperature rise of over 4°C by the end of this century, the possibilities for adaptation are drastically reduced. Among others, climate change impacts such as the deterioration of the Asian “water towers”, prolonged heat waves, coastal sea-level rise and changes in rainfall patterns could disrupt ecosystem services and lead to severe effects on livelihoods which in turn would affect human health, migration dynamics and the potential for conflicts. This assessment also underlines that, for many areas vital to the region’s economy, research on the effects of climate change is still lacking.

In response to the dire social and economic consequences predicted to result from climate change—especially for the most vulnerable populations in developing countries— policy makers around the world are working toward a new long-term international framework to address this global challenge. Asia and the Pacific has the world’s most dynamic economies but also the greatest number of people at risk from climate change as well as the fastest-growing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs)—the cause of global warming. Unless Asia and the rest of the world act to stabilize GHG emissions, poverty reduction efforts will experience new threats from climate-induced risks to the health, safety, and productivity of the poor. Such impacts are already affecting populations across the region, so even with aggressive actions, measures are needed to protect the most vulnerable from the adverse effects of sea level rise, melting glaciers, more frequent and severe climate-related natural disasters, greater variability of rainfall, and other predicted consequences of climate change.

A strong state reinforces investment yield, whether this results from public or private sector investment. Th e development needs of a weak state must diff er from those of a strong state. Th e fragile states of the Pacifi c are not the dynamic societies of Asia.1 Th ese may sound like obvious statements but the special needs of Pacifi c fragile states have not been apparent in earlier approaches to development in the Pacifi c region. Current Asian Development Bank (ADB) regional and country strategies and programs diff er from those of earlier years. Emphasis on maintaining project loan portfolios has been lessened and replaced by an emphasis on strengthening state operations, including testing and strengthening the demand for reform, and engaging civil society in development decisions. Th e shift is toward greater participation in development with the aim of building demand for good governance and reform to support performance-oriented delivery of public and private goods and services.

Fiji, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Samoa and Tuvalu report monitoring data for this report, with data from a broad range of observers (scientists, students, dive guides and communities); Nauru has not conducted recent monitoring; Coral cover has changed since the 2004 report due to effective management (positive), or local disturbances, coral predation and natural disasters (negative). Average coral cover at monitoring sites was 45% in Fiji; 27% in New Caledonia; 43% in Samoa; 30% in Solomon Islands; 65% in Tuvalu; and 26% in Vanuatu; Monitoring observations over 9-10 years in Fiji and New Caledonia indicate that these reefs have coped reasonably well with natural and human stressors without catastrophic changes; Densities of edible fish and invertebrates remained generally low (0-10/100m2) in 4 countries reflecting high subsistence and commercial fishing pressure. Butterflyfish, parrotfish, surgeonfish and damselfish were generally most dominant. High densities of parrotfish were reported from 4 countries; Socioeconomic monitoring is conducted in Fiji, Samoa and Solomon Islands. Greatest activity is by the Fiji Locally Marine Managed Area (FLMMA) network at 270 villages across all Fiji provinces. Most households harvest marine resources for subsistence and partially for sale, with few commercial fishers. In Samoa, more people eat canned fish than fresh fish, possibly because of decreased fish stocks in the last 10 years. In the Solomon Islands, some traditional managed systems have collapsed due to poor understanding of fisheries and resource management issues or poor national regulations. Mangrove destruction and greater fishing pressure are reducing family incomes;

Recent studies have shown that the Cook Islands' social infrastructure has limited preparedness against weather-related vulnerability. The inherent geographical vulnerability of the country to climate change can be ameliorated by initiating integrated infrastructure and social development, including human resources development.